If Kaine says No to Senate Bid, Perriello May Say Yes

One term former Congressman Tom Perriello is considering running for Webb's U.S. Senate seat in 2012 should Kaine ultimately say no after his expected conversation on the subject with President Obama, according to Roll Call Politics via the Washington Post.

Defeated Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) would consider running for the Senate in 2012 if Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine opts not to enter, Perriello told the Washington Post on Wednesday.

“It’s obviously nice” to hear his name mentioned as a contender to succeed Sen. Jim Webb (D), who announced last week that he would not seek re-election in 2012, Perriello said.

Perriello narrowly won the 5th District seat from then Congressman Virgil Goode in 2008 but lost the seat to former State Senator Robert Hurt in 2010.  Perriello was endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund (PVF) in 2010, which was not received well by some NRA members in the district.

There are currently two candidates vying for the Republican nomination - former U.S. Senator George Allen and Tea Party activist Jamie Ratke.

Virginia Bellwether for Nation

For most of this election season, this blog has talked about two races - VA05 and VA09.  Those two featured the highest profile races where State Senator Robert Hurt won a bruising primary for the chance to take on endangered one term incumbent Tom Perriello.  The other race featured House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith taking on 28 year incumbent Rick Boucher.  Just days before Griffith jumped in the race, the NRA made an unprecedented February endorsement for Boucher.  It is generally understood that Boucher sought the early endorsement because he knew that Griffith would be a tough challenger - one who has an excellent pro-rights record in the General Assembly.

But there was always the race in VA02 that was also going to be an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat they had held since the late Owen Pickett retired in 2000.  That race features incumbent Glenn Nye and businessman Scott Rigell.  Rigell also won a spirited primary in June. 

Conventional wisdom held that Rigell and Hurt had a good shot to take back two long time GOP held seats because the districts are conservative (though VA02 barely went for Obama in 2008).   The 9th went big for McCain in 2008 but Boucher won with no opposition.  When he has been opposed in presidential years, Boucher would win while the district went Republican.  He even survived the last GOP wave of 1994.  But this year, he would have to defend his vote for Cap and Trade which most believe would further destroy his coal field district.

The final race that has gained notoriety is the rematch in VA11 between challenger Keith Fimian and Congressman Gerald "Gerry" Connolly.  The first indication that Connolly was in trouble was when he bucked his party and voted for congress to stay in session and deal with the expiration of the "Bush Tax Cuts."  NRA also has a field representative  working in the district to oversee activities for gun owner volunteers.  NRA has endorsed Fimian.

So, for those who are wonder just how big a night the GOP will have, here is my prediction based on Virginia races.  If Rigell (VA02) and Hurt (VA05) win, it is a good night for the GOP as they start to take back some of the seats lost over the last four years in conservative leaning districts.  As the night goes on, should Fimian (VA11) be added to the list of wins the wave has hit the shore and the predictions of 55 GOP pick-ups made by the well known prognosticators are well within reach.  Finally, if Boucher loses to Griffith (VA09), the hurricane has come ashore.

For some perspective, political analyst Charlie Cook has both the 2nd and 5th districts leaning GOP as both challengers have small leads of about 5 points.  Cook has the 11th a tossup with Connolly leading by 2 points and the 9th a tossup with Griffith up by 11 (though I don't know if the Cook's numbers are correct in the 9th as most polls have shown the numbers flipped).  Real Clear Politics lists the four the same as Cook.  The latest Survey USA poll has Griffith up by 1 point on Boucher.  Jim Geraghty has the 2nd, 5th and 11th going to the challengers and Boucher hanging on in the 9th.

Obama to Attend Rally for Perriello Friday

It was reported that President Obama will attend a rally for embattled incumbent Tom Perriello this Friday.  The rally will take place in Perriello's hometown of Charlottesville, which is one of the few liberal bastions in what is otherwise a pretty conservative rural district.  Charlottesville is also home to the University of Virginia and Obama's intent is to try and rally the "youth vote" that gave him a winning margin in 2008.

The campaign of State Senator Robert Hurt believes the visit will not help Perriello who most polls indicate is trailing Hurt in the race.

"We gladly welcome President Obama to the 5th district as he campaigns on behalf of his favorite Congressman, Tom Perriello," Henneberg said. "His visit will further solidify the idea in the minds of voters that Congressman Perriello has been nothing more than a lap dog for the job killing Obama-Pelosi agenda, representing their interests, not the interests of Central and Southside Virginians.

Perriello is endorsed by the NRA-PVF.  Hurt earned an "A" rating from the NRA-PVF based on his record in the Virginia General Assembly and his responses to the candidate questionnaire.  Hurt is regularly endorsed by NRA in his General Assembly races.

Perriello Barnstorms 5th District in 24 Hours

Is is a stunt to get media attention in an uphill race for re-election?  Fifth District incumbent Democratic Congressman Tom Perriello says no.  He may be correct as it probably doesn't take much for the 5th District race to garner attention.  Perriello is near the top of the list of endangered incumbents - one of the few so-called "Blue Dogs" who not only stuck with Obama and voted for Obamacare and "Cap and Trade" but is running on those votes.  CQ Politics noted that the race in this traditionally Republican district which Perriello won in a squeaker at the same time McCain was picking up 59% of the vote in 2008 is being watched by media nationally and even from around the world.

Perriello has become one of the most high profile Democratic freshman in large part because he stuck by his party on controversial votes such as health care reform, despite hailing from a conservative south central Virginia district that he won by the narrowest of margins (fewer than 800 votes) in 2008. Now the Congressman’s re-election bid against state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) is not only garnering national attention but international interest. He was joined at around 4:15 a.m. Monday by a camera crew from Japanese Public Television at the dairy farm that he was touring.

Stunt or not, it is a chance for Perriello to be seen by some people who might not normally show up for a traditional campaign event which is what campaigns should be about.

Among those who seemed to appreciate Perriello’s efforts Monday morning was Floyd resident Jerry Reed, who was having a grilled cheese and pickle sandwich at Dudley’s Truck Stop Restaurant, when the Congressman sat down at his table to talk about the issue jobs.

“He’s a nice fellow,” said Reed, who said he is generally disgusted by all elections and doesn’t think much of Democrats or Republicans. “It helps a lot to meet a man. A man who comes in at 1 in the morning means business.“

Will this be enough for Perriello to overcome what most every poll is showing a solid lead for State Senator Robert Hurt?  We will know in a week.

Poll Indicates NRA Endorsement Not Helping Perriello

Roanoke College today released the results of their latest poll in Virginia's 5th Congressional District that shows State Senator Robert Hurt maintaining a lead in the race against incumbent Tom Perriello though the current 6 point lead is smaller than in previous polls. Tea Party candidate Jeffery Clark is a distant third, polling 1%.   The poll interviewed 567 likely voters in the between October 5 and October 14. The Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

I found this interesting tidbit in the poll related to the NRA's endorsement of Tom Perriello::

The Poll also asked about the impact of the NRA's endorsement of Perriello, a potentially important factor for an electorate in which 61% of respondents reside in a household that contains a firearm. A majority of respondents said it made no difference to them (80%), while the rest were almost evenly split between saying it made them more likely to vote for Perriello (11%) or less likely to vote for him (9%).

This result seems to validate what NRA-ILA Executive Director Chris Cox told Jim Geraghty at the first of the month when talking about this year's election endorsements and how NRA members may view them:

We focus solely on the right to keep and bear arms, because that’s our issue. Now, there are a lot of other issues that voters have to address, particularly in a year like this; they’re looking at fiscal issues, they’re looking at the health-care issue.


We encourage our members to put it in the forefront of their decision-making, and that’s proven to be a very effective, a very fair, and credible way for NRA to be positioned to help the rights of our members.

It appears that voters are looking hard at those other issues with the poll indicating that the economy is the dominant issue in the campaign with jobs running second and health care third. According to those surveyed, Hurt leads 51%-34% among those who sited the economy as their top issue as well as those who cited jobs (48%-41%). Those who support Obamacare, for which Perriello, voted support the incumbent 51%-34%.

The director of Roanoke College's Institute for Policy and Opinion, Dr. Harry Wilson, who conducted the poll, said the results indicate it will be difficult for Perriello to win a second term.

"Perriello has to hope for a very large turnout among the core Democratic voters as well as the so-called 'Obama voters.' That said, the race is certainly not yet over."

Most models indicate that Republicans are much more motivated to turnout this election than Democrats.  However, it's not over until the last vote is counted so anything can happen.

E. J. Dionne Jr.: Perriello is This Election's Test Case

Yesterday's Washington Post had this article about the race in Virginia's 5th Congressional District by E. J. Dionne, Jr, where he wondered if:

Tom Perriello is this election's test case of whether casting tough votes is better than ducking them, and whether a progressive who fashions an intelligent populism can survive in deeply conservative territory.

Most polls have shown Perriello trailing badly in his race for a second term in congress but a poll released this week by The Hill newspaper showed the race tightening considerably.  Dionne points out that Perriello voted for the "Stimulus" bill, "Cap and Trade" and for Obamacare and says by this measure he should be the most endangered Democrat, especially since he is running in a district that John McCain won in 2008 and that Perriello won by only 727 votes.

Election watchers may have noticed a trend in most recent articles about the endangered incumbents - that these Democrats that have been considered as possible losers in this year of the Tea Party and "throw the bums out" are now starting to claw their way back.  Dionne's article is no different.  In fact you would think that the Perriello campaign fed Dionne a script for the article.  Take this choice nugget for instance that says Perriello:

...can't be pigeonholed as a down-the-line Obama supporter. He has been critical of the president's economic team for not putting enough money into rebuilding the country's infrastructure and for being too close to Wall Street.

How do you in one breath say Perriello has made all the tough votes by standing with Obama then say he can't be pigeonholed as an Obama supporter, simply because he does not think Obama has gone far enough to the left?

I guess we will know in November which was the winning strategy: standing by your votes like Perriello, or running as far away as possible from Obama and his policies like most of the endangered incumbents have been for the last six months.

New Poll Shows Tightening Race in 5th District, Lead for GOP In 2nd

A new poll released today by The Hill Newspaper shows that 2nd District Republican Scott Rigell holds a 42-36 lead over incumbent Glenn Nye.  The surprise is the race between State Senator Robert Hurt and incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello has tightened to 1 point, 45-44.  Perriello has trailed badly for most of the race up to now by as many as 16 points.  The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that while the new numbers are good news to the embattled Perriello, he has a serious hill that he must climb:

An added complication for Perriello is that in his district, 80 percent of Republicans say they are “very passionate” about voting, versus 68 percent of Democrats feeling that way.

But The Hill poll also found this:

Despite some ominous signs for Democrats in Perriello’s district, he’s one of the incumbents in this group who shows clear signs of strength. Perriello is one of the only freshman Democrats who leads his Republican challenger among male voters — 46 percent to 45.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The old saying that "it's not over till it's over certainly is playing out in this year's election.

Candidates Debate Vote to Adjourn

It should be no surprise that challengers to congressional incumbents are trying to use to their advantage the vote to adjourn congress without passing a budget or extending tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of the year.  Endangered incumbents Perriello (VA05), Connolly (VA11) and  Nye (VA02) voted with the Republicans to stay in session and take up the tax issue.  The fourth vulnerable incumbent, Rick Boucher (VA09) voted to adjourn.

Boucher's opponent, Morgan Griffith, told the Roanoke Times that Boucher's vote is a vote to raise taxes on the families of the 9th District.  Boucher, not surprisingly, disagrees:

"Congress is punting, and not dealing with a federal spending plan," Griffith said in the release. "They did not deal with an extension of Bush-era tax cuts which expire at the end of 2010, thus raising taxes on millions of Americans."

Boucher disputed that, saying the vote to adjourn was purely procedural and had nothing to do with the question of tax cuts.

"What they're trying to do is take every procedural vote we cast ... and talk about it in a totally different context," Boucher said. "I'll have to say excuse me, but this is just plain nonsense."

Boucher's denial is a little hard to swallow given that three of his colleagues from Virginia did not view it as a procedural vote.  Griffith says Boucher is making his point for him - that the House leadership speaks and he (Boucher) listens:

"It came out to be a one-vote margin. Perriello and other Democrats realized it was abdication and walking away from their responsibility. Boucher claims to be up there fighting for people and he's not paying attention."

Boucher, Perriello and Nye, received the endorsement of the NRA-PVF last Friday.  Griffith, and Hurt (VA05) received "A" ratings while Nye's opponent, Scott Rigell (VA02) and Connolly's opponent, Keith Fimian (VA11) received "AQ" ratings (Fimian was also endorsed by NRA-PVF).  Connelly received an "F" rating.

It's Official - NRA-PVF Endorses Endangered Incumbents Nye and Perriello

The NRA-PVF officially released endorsements for Virginia's congressional candidates today and two endorsements are sure to bring howls among some pro-rights supporters in the Commonwealth.  There is a strong anti-incumbent feeling in Virginia just as there is across the nation and it is especially strong in the 2nd and 5th congressional districts where Congressmen Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello are locked in tough re-election battles.  There has been every indication that Nye and Perriello would receive the NRA endorsement based on their short time in congress.  Today NRA confirmed that with the following reasons:

McDonald Case -- Signed the pro-gun congressional "friend of the court" brief in the McDonald case supporting the position that the Second Amendment is a fundamental right that protects all Americans


Holder Letter -- Signed the letter to Attorney General Eric Holder with 64 other House Democrats expressing opposition to the reenactment of the failed 1994 Clinton ban on semi-automatic firearms and ammunition magazines

BATFE Reform -- Cosponsored legislation to force much-needed reform of the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE)

Right-to-Carry Reciprocity -- Cosponsored the National Right-to-Carry Reciprocity Act that would extend federal protection of state right to carry licenses and permits across the country

Right-to-Carry in Parks -- Voted last year to allow carry license or permit holders to carry and transport firearms for self-defense in national parks and wildlife refuges

Protecting Gun Owners in Bankruptcy Act -- Voted for the Protecting Gun Owners in Bankruptcy Act, which would ensure that a person who filed for bankruptcy would not lose their firearms, thereby maintaining the fundamental right to self-defense

Second Amendment Enforcement Act -- Cosponsored the Second Amendment Enforcement Act that would repeal the D.C. gun ban/registration statute and restore the right of self-defense to law-abiding residents of our nation's capital

Hunting Heritage -- Supports protecting hunting, fishing, trapping and recreational shooting on public land managed by the Bureau of Land Management

Will this be enough to win both Nye and Perriello another term in congress?  While Nye's opponent has never held elective office and his NRA "AQ" rating is based on the responses on his questionnaire, Perriello's opponent has a long history as a member of the General Assembly supporting the Second Amendment.  So Robert Hurt earned the same "A" that Perriello earned.  Gun owners will have to decide which of the candidates will best represent their interests in Washington.  It should be an interesting 30 days.

Four Incumbent Democrats Get Bad Polling News

Jim Geraghty reports over on NRO's Campaign Spot that four Virginia Democrats received some bad news from a recent poll conducted by ccAdvertising.  Three of the Democrats are trailing and one is leading but locked in a close race.  It should be noted the polls include a large number of undecideds.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.

The three point spread in the 9th might explain why Boucher has done something in this race that he has rarely done before - mention his opponent by name.  The Roanoke Times reports that Boucher is running an attack ad against Morgan Griffith.  Boucher was recently pounded in an ad by Griffith tying him to President Obama (Obama lost the 9th in 2008) as well as by ads run by a independent group linking Boucher to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  A Boucher spokeswomen denies that polling has anything to do with Boucher's shift in campaign tactics.

So far, Boucher is the only incumbent Democrat to have officially received an endorsement from the NRA.  The Perriello campaign  "proudly announced" on its web site on September 23rd "that it expects to receive the endorsement of the NRA" but nothing has been announced by the NRA yet.   The NRA-PVF web site notes that endorsements are "coming soon."  There has been no word from the Nye campaign regarding an NRA endorsement.  For their part, both Griffith and Hurt have "A" ratings from their last General Assembly campaigns.  Griffith has been instrumental in moving pro-rights legislation through the House of Delegates.  Hurt can claim his own support for the rights of gun owners with this letter from the NRA.  Rigell has no voting record.

It can be safely said that Connolly will not be expecting an NRA endorsement.

NRA Endorsements in Virginia

Besides being the VSSA Legislative Chairman, I am also an NRA-ILA Election Volunteer Coordinator (NRA-ILA-EVC).  This means my name ends up on the cover of NRA magazines this time of year, encouraging gun owners to contact me to get involved in the campaigns of endorsed candidates.  Apparently, the lastest issue of the magazines have ended up in the mailboxes around Virginia (I subscribe to the digital versions) because I began getting phone calls about NRA-PVF endorsing Tom Perriello in the 5th Congressional District.  It should be noted that I am not the EVC for the 5th District.  No, the folks that called me did not live in the 5th either but they wanted to express their disgust with the endorsement and EVC's are the only point of contact with a real person for the average NRA members because EVC's are volunteers and do not work for NRA.

After exchanging some pleasantries, I shared with the folks pretty much the same message that Chris Cox did with National Review's Jim Geraghty in today's online article:

We are a non-partisan organization, and we don’t base any grade or any endorsement on a party affiliation. That’s how we have continued to succeed, by solely considering how a candidate stands on the Second Amendment and the right to keep and bear arms. We send out candidate questionnaires to every candidate, and we look at public statements and the things they say in debates. We focus solely on the right to keep and bear arms, because that’s our issue. Now, there are a lot of other issues that voters have to address, particularly in a year like this; they’re looking at fiscal issues, they’re looking at the health-care issue. 

Most voters aren't single issue voters and when they see a guy like Tom Perriello get the endorsement, a guy who has supported the agenda of President Obama 99% of the time, an agenda that is not very popular in the 5th District (nor outside the 5th other than in Northern Virginia), these folks tend to forget that NRA is a single issue organization.  While Perriello may have thumbed his nose at his constituents when it comes to health care, the misnamed "Stimulus" bill, and others, he has voted the right way the few times the issue of firearms and the Second Amendment has come before him.  It is up to the voters of the 5th District to decide if that is enough to re-elect him.  Given Perriello's opponent is a Virginia State Senator with an equally (most would say more) impressive record on the right to keep and bear arms, it is likely voters in the 5th District will feel they don't have to worry about their Second Amendment rights and will base their decision on other issues.

Update: See more on NRA's Virginia Endorsement's here.  Hat-tip to Norman Leahy.

Good Profile of Perriello vs Hurt 5th District Race

The Roanoke Times has a good profile of the hotly contested 5th District Congressional Race.

Challenger Robert Hurt, a Republican state senator from Chatham, is running a campaign like a front-runner: skipping debates in recent weeks and leading in the polls as his campaign continues to paint U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Albemarle County, as an ally of President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Perriello is pushing his independence, including an ad running in recent days that he broke with his party on numerous issues, including his support of a balanced budget, family farms and his A rating from the National Rifle Association.

It should be noted that Hurt also has consistently earned an "A" rating from the NRA as a member of the Virginia General Assembly and has always supported the rights of gun owners and sportsmen.

And They're Off

Labor Day is typically the traditional kick-off to the general election campaign and this year is no exception. Article after article over the weekend focused on the 2010 Congressional election and the prospects that Democrats may be on the way to losing their majority in at least the House of Representatives.

This article from the NY Times drew a lot of attention as many took from it the message that the Democrats were ready to throw their most vulnerable members under the bus in order to move resources to races that can still be won in the hope of holding on to at least a one seat majority. One of those suggested to be on the list to roll under that bus is 5th District Congressman Tom Perriello. Polls have recently shown Perriello trialing State Senator Robert Hurt by as much as 30 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) quickly rushed out a release to counter the Times article.

"The Members of Congress referenced in the article are all running strong campaigns focused on their solid records and drawing sharp distinctions between themselves and their opponents on the key issues at stake in this election. The DCCC is heavily invested in these campaigns. In each campaign mentioned, the DCCC has provided and continues to provide support for field operations and other key campaign activities."

Much of what has set up the current environment is the souring economy (the Summer of Recovery that never happened), thus leading to a significant downturn in the President's approval ratings. According to CQ Politics' Stuart Rothenberg, the Democrats hope to try and turn attention away from Obama and the national economy to the more traditional localization of congressional races.

The Democratic strategy for minimizing losses remains twofold. First, make the midterm elections a choice between the two parties rather than a referendum on Obama, and second, demonize Republican challengers, thereby making them unacceptable to voters.

While the models that suggest Democrats are on the verge of losing big in November are generic unnamed R vs. D match-ups, Rothenberg says that his individual race analysis does not yet show the Republican wave that the generic polls currently indicate. But it is clear that panic is in the air among Democrats. Look for races to turn nasty in districts like Virginia's 2nd, 5th, and 9th districts as incumbent Democrat representatives fight off aggressive challenges.

Robert Hurt Continues to Show Commanding Lead in 5th District

Incumbent congressman Tom Perriello hill has gotten a little steeper in his re-election race according to the latest poll by SurveyUSA for WDBJ TV in Roanoke.

 

Tom Perriello Underwater

Looks like Tom Perriello is going to be coming off of some of that $2 million war chest in the very near future if a new poll conducted by Survey USA for WDBJ-TV in Danville is correct.

In the poll of 800 registered voters in the district (591 considered to be likely voters), Republican State Senator Robert Hurt defeats incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello 58% to 35%. Disgruntled Republican turned independent Jeffery Clark registers only 4% and as of now, is not a factor.

Perriello only won the seat by 727 votes in 2008, at the same time John McCain was handily winning the district.

I generally take Survey USA polls with a grain of salt, preferring Mason Dixon which has been more accurate in the past. However, Survey USA was on the mark in last year's Governor's election (though it was difficult to be wrong in that campaign). Whether the numbers are as big as the poll indicates, it does show Hurt came out of his rough and tumble primary in good shape and all he has to do now is raise the money to get on TV in the district that sprawls from Charlottesville to the North Carolina border.

This race is going to be fun to watch.

Hat tip to Jim Geraghty.

Endangered Democrats Hold Big Cash Leads in 2nd, 5th and 9th Districts

The money reports are out and the three Democrats facing the toughest challenges, Glenn Nye (D-VA2), Tom Perriello (D-VA5) and Rick Boucher (D-VA9) have huge campaign war chest leads over their challengers. It should be noted that both Republican candidates, Scott Rigell (VA2) and State Senator Robert Hurt (VA5) had to use resources to win primaries in June. Delegate Morgan Griffith, who is challenging Boucher in the 9th had to win a convention nominating contest in May.

Both Nye and Perriello have taken the few opportunities they have had to support gun rights while in their freshman year in congress. Boucher has a long record of supporting gun owner rights and received an unusually early endorsement from the NRA in February. Rigell has no voting record but says he supports the rights of gun owners and sportsmen. Hurt has a great voting record on our issue as both a member of the House of Delegates and the State Senate, earning an "A" rating from the NRA-PVF in the last senate elections. Griffith has an equally long record of supporting gun rights during his time in the House of Delegates and received an "A+" rating in last year's House of Delegates elections.

In the 2nd District, Glenn Nye ended the fund raising quarter with $1.27 million on hand. Rigell ended the quarter with $226,970 on hand. Kenneth Golden, the former Virginia Beach Republican Committee Chairman who is running as an independent, reported having $1,313 as of June 30. Rigell has deep pockets is can be counted on to pump his money into the campaign to catch up to Nye.

In the 5th District, Representative Tom Perriello raised more than $660,000 and had $1.7 million cash on hand as of June 30. Hurt had $212,000 on hand.

In the 9th District House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith out raised Representative Rick Boucher bringing in $259,000 to Boucher’s $248,000 in Virginia's 9th District. Boucher however has a commanding lead in cash on hand with $2 million and went up on TV with his first commercial today. Griffith had $297,228 on hand as of June 30.

CQ Politics lists both the 2nd and 5th districts as toss-ups due to their normally Republican leanings. Perriello won the 5th in 2008 by less than 1/2% while John McCain handily won the district. Nye also won a close race but Obama barely carried the heavily military district. Boucher has held his seat for some 20 years and manages to win big even when his district is voting overwhelmingly for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket mainly because, as Bearing Drift notes, he takes care of his constituents. CQ Politics rates the 9th as Leans Democrat.

Griffith has the highest mountain to scale but even his task is not impossible. Boucher has some explaining to do for his support of Cap and Trade in his coal field district. Cap and Trade will decimate the workers in his district, one that is already the most depressed areas in the Commonwealth.

Incumbency brings money, and the GOP incumbents did as well as their Democrat counterparts. 1st District Representative Rob Wittman reported $519,586 on hand; 4th District Representative Randy Forbes reported $451,410 on hand; and, 7th District Representative Eric Cantor reported having $1.5 million cash on hand as of June 30. All three are good friends of gun owners and and have major party challengers but they are not well funded.

The 1st District challenger, Krystal Marie Ball, reported having $260,735 on hand as of June 30th. She is the only challenger to the incumbent Republicans that has close to six figures on hand.

The next reporting period will be the important test to see if the Republican challengers can cut in to the money leads of their opponents. For gun owners, the Virginia races in the 2nd, 5th, and 9th districts offer an opportunity to look at the total candidate as all (except Rigell) have records of support for our issue.

Today is GOP Primary Day

Several Congressional Districts are holding a primary today to determine the GOP Nominee for this November's election.

In the 1st District, incumbent Rob Wittman is being challenged by Catherine Crabill. Wittman is endorsed by the NRA-PVF. Congressman Wittman is a friend to gun owners and has been since his days in the General Assembly. Gun owners and sportsmen in the 1st Congressional District are urged to go to the polls today and support Rob Wittman.

In the 2nd District, six candidates are vying for the opportunity to challenge one term incumbent Congressman Glen Nye. Nye outperformed Barack Obama by 2% in 2008, winning 52.4 - 47.46. Obama won this heavily military district 50-48. The 2nd District is considered a swing district and rated as a toss-up my most pundits.

Ben Loyola
Ed Maulbeck
Bert Mizusawa
E. Scott Rigell
Jessica Sandlin
Scott Taylor

Governor Bob McDonnell has endorsed his longtime friend and supporter Scott Rigell. Rigell is considered the favorite in this race if for no other reason, because he has put a lot of his own money into the race. Rigell has been dogged in the primary by opponents who have pointed to his $10,000 political contribution in 2002 to an effort to finance local road and transit projects through an increase in the state sales tax but that does not seem to have dampened pundits' predictions that he is likely to have a double digit win in the primary. The NRA has not endorsed in this primary.

The 5th Congressional District is the most watched race. No less than seven candidates are running to challenge incumbent Tom Perriello. Perriello has acquired the name "One Term Tom" from those working many who dislike him. One the couple of votes related to gun rights, he has supported the interests of gun owners. He has also signed on to a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder telling the AG not push a renewal of the Clinton Gun Ban. But for those looking to unseat Perriello, they point to his unblemished record of supporting President Obama's agenda. Like Nye in the 2nd, Perriello outperformed Obama in 2008. Obama actually lost the district 51-48 while Perriello eked out a win over Congressman Virgil Goode 50.09-49.86. The 5th Congressional District is another toss-up rated District. The candidates running to take on Perriello are:

Kenneth Boyd
Ron Ferrin
Senator Robert Hurt
Mike McPadden
James McKelvey
Feda Kidd Morton
Laurence Verga

Boyd is a member of the Albermarle County Board of Supervisors. Feda Morton is a teacher and longtime Republican activist. Senator Hurt is a long time friend to gun owners as both a member of the House of Delegates and the State Senate. He has supported repeal of the ban on carrying concealed in restaurants like Appleebees and Olive Garden, that serve alcohol as well as food. Hurt has supported countless other bills restoring and expanding the rights of gun owners. He received "A" ratings from the NRA in his state legislative races.

Hurt has taken some heat for supporting then Governor Mark Warner's tax increase in 2004. Backers of Perriello hope that some conservative anti-tax voters will shun Hurt and vote instead for a right-leaning independent in the fall.

NRA has not endorsed a candidate in this primary. The "incumbent rule" may come into play in the general election in November. If Hurt wins today, gun owners will have two candidates from which to chose who have voting records on our issue.

The 8th District is a contest to take on longtime anti-gun incumbent Jim Moran. The candidates are:

Matthew Berry
Patrick Murray

Finally, in the 11th District, there is a very competitive race to take on anti-gun incumbent Gerry Connelly. The candidates are:

Keith Fimian
Patrick Herrity

Fimian is looking for a rematch from the 2008 race. He was endorsed by the NRA-PVF in 2008. Gun owners looking for a difference between the two may want to consider, Fimian opposes an unconstitutional full congressional representation for the District of Columbia. Herrity supports a representative in Congress for D.C. This representative would most certainly be anti-gun. The NRA has not endorsed in this primary.

Gun owners in each of these districts are encouraged to vote in today's primary, which is open to all voters. If you are not familiar with the candidates, click the links for each candidate in your district, read where they stand, then get out and vote.

RPV Responds to Criticism of Ads Targeting Boucher and Perriello

The Danville News is reporting today that RPV stands by their ads targeting Boucher and Perriello.

Garren Shipley, RPV director of communications, said in an e-mail statement that pro-gun Democrats like Perriello should have spoken out against Calderon’s speech. He said the ads would stay online until Perriello gives his opinion on Calderon’s call to ban sporting guns.

“I find it hard to believe Rep. Perriello is really arguing that since he wasn’t in the room at the time, he shouldn’t have to stand up for his constituents’ Second Amendment rights,” Shipley said. “It’s easy to be pro-gun when all you have to do is sign a letter. It’s another thing entirely to stand up for the Second Amendment when Speaker Pelosi hasn’t given you a permission slip to oppose her.”

If the point is to get Boucher and Perriello to state publicly that a) Calderon is wrong; and, b)their colleagues were wrong to applaud Calderon's comments, RPV is on a little stronger footing than saying the two Democrats are anti-gun when there is ample evidence to the contrary. The ad does not specifically say either were there, just calls for them to state their position.

I do however stand by my assertion that it is a little too cute by half. In the end, I'm not sure how this helps the GOP candidates running against the incumbents. What you succeed in doing is giving the incumbents an opportunity to further strengthen their pro-rights credentials.

Are They Really This Stupid?

We knew ads like this were coming. After anti-gun Democrats and Obama cabinet members Eric Holder and Janet Napolitano lept to their feet when Mexican President Felipe Calderon called for a renewal of the so-called "Assault Weapons Ban," it would only take the Republican campaign apparatus a matter of days to throw up ads targeting the Democrats that gave El Presidente Calderon a standing ovation. One would have hoped that they would do some research before running ads against members that have a pro-gun record. I guess in this case at least, that was to much to expect.

According to the L.A. Times' Top of the Ticket political blog, the Virginia GOP did exactly that - ran ads against two incumbents who, in the case of at least one - Boucher, has a totally spotless record on guns.

"Voters in the 5th and 9th Districts need to know if Democrat Reps. Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello were among the hundreds of Democrats who leaped to their feet to applaud gun control while a leader from a foreign nation scolded the American people for upholding the rights secured to us by our Constitution," said party Chairman Pat Mullins in announcing the new commercials. Sensing a blockbuster investigative opportunity, the Ticket did its due diligence and called both offices (as requested by the commercials and the party chair) to find out if they gave Calderon a standing O.

The suspense lasted for about 30 seconds. Nope.

Making it even less suspenseful and infinitely more boring, neither congressman were even there.

This just looks bad for an organization that until last November was struggling to look relevant. There have been internal power struggles that led to fundraising woes at RPV over the last few years as well as a long loosing streak in statewide elections dating back to 2001. This was supposed to change when Mr. Mullins became party chairman but it appears that someone decided to be too cute by half in this case.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for using the video of members of Congress that not only applauded, but went out of their way to jump up and down in enthusiastic adulation for a foreign leader that used an opportunity to speak before them to take us to task for not behaving the way the leader thinks we should. I just think you need to make sure the individual being targeted was actually in the room and in fact was one of the participants in the spectacle. All the state GOP has succeeded in doing is looking very bad and giving left wing bloggers a chance to rub it in their face.