Virginia Bellwether for Nation

For most of this election season, this blog has talked about two races - VA05 and VA09.  Those two featured the highest profile races where State Senator Robert Hurt won a bruising primary for the chance to take on endangered one term incumbent Tom Perriello.  The other race featured House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith taking on 28 year incumbent Rick Boucher.  Just days before Griffith jumped in the race, the NRA made an unprecedented February endorsement for Boucher.  It is generally understood that Boucher sought the early endorsement because he knew that Griffith would be a tough challenger - one who has an excellent pro-rights record in the General Assembly.

But there was always the race in VA02 that was also going to be an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat they had held since the late Owen Pickett retired in 2000.  That race features incumbent Glenn Nye and businessman Scott Rigell.  Rigell also won a spirited primary in June. 

Conventional wisdom held that Rigell and Hurt had a good shot to take back two long time GOP held seats because the districts are conservative (though VA02 barely went for Obama in 2008).   The 9th went big for McCain in 2008 but Boucher won with no opposition.  When he has been opposed in presidential years, Boucher would win while the district went Republican.  He even survived the last GOP wave of 1994.  But this year, he would have to defend his vote for Cap and Trade which most believe would further destroy his coal field district.

The final race that has gained notoriety is the rematch in VA11 between challenger Keith Fimian and Congressman Gerald "Gerry" Connolly.  The first indication that Connolly was in trouble was when he bucked his party and voted for congress to stay in session and deal with the expiration of the "Bush Tax Cuts."  NRA also has a field representative  working in the district to oversee activities for gun owner volunteers.  NRA has endorsed Fimian.

So, for those who are wonder just how big a night the GOP will have, here is my prediction based on Virginia races.  If Rigell (VA02) and Hurt (VA05) win, it is a good night for the GOP as they start to take back some of the seats lost over the last four years in conservative leaning districts.  As the night goes on, should Fimian (VA11) be added to the list of wins the wave has hit the shore and the predictions of 55 GOP pick-ups made by the well known prognosticators are well within reach.  Finally, if Boucher loses to Griffith (VA09), the hurricane has come ashore.

For some perspective, political analyst Charlie Cook has both the 2nd and 5th districts leaning GOP as both challengers have small leads of about 5 points.  Cook has the 11th a tossup with Connolly leading by 2 points and the 9th a tossup with Griffith up by 11 (though I don't know if the Cook's numbers are correct in the 9th as most polls have shown the numbers flipped).  Real Clear Politics lists the four the same as Cook.  The latest Survey USA poll has Griffith up by 1 point on Boucher.  Jim Geraghty has the 2nd, 5th and 11th going to the challengers and Boucher hanging on in the 9th.

Jim Geraghty's Election Predictions

National Review's Jim Geraghty has posted his election predictions.  In the four closely watched Virginia races, Jim is picking three challengers to pick off the incumbents. The three challengers are Scott Rigell (VA02), Robert Hurt (VA05) and Keith Fimian (VA11).  That last on may be the biggest shocker should the prediction be correct given the demographics of the 11th District.  Geraghty is picking Boucher to hold on to his 9th District seat.  We should know by 9:00 PM if the predictions come true.

Griffith Has Some Work to Do

Last week WDBJ7 in Roanoke released the results of a Survey USA Poll showing incumbent congressman Tom Perriello trailing his challenger, State Senator Robert Hurt by 23 points in Virginia's 5th District. The next day, WDBJ released the results of a Survey USA Poll in the 9th District race between incumbent Rick Boucher and challenger Morgan Griffith. The results are reversed with Boucher holding a 13 point lead over Griffith.



Most observers knew this was going to be an uphill battle for Griffith. Boucher's lead is not insurmountable but Griffith has a lot of work to do between now and Election Day to make this a race.

Griffith, Hurt Make Underfunded 20 List

Over on National Review's web site, Jim Geraghty runs down 20 GOP challengers who are running in districts that Bush and McCain won but that are currently held by Democratic congressmen.

Rob Hurt, Virginia’s 5th district: A recent Survey USA poll offered the jaw-dropping result that Hurt is ahead of first-term Democrat Tom Perriello, 58 percent to 35 percent. But incumbency has its privileges and advantages, and Perriello is sitting on more than $1.7 million. Hurt’s most recent filing shows him with a bit over $215,000. In terms of advertising cost, this district is in the middle of the pack.

Morgan Griffith, Virginia’s 9th district: One would expect the majority leader in the Virginia house of delegates to have a solid fundraising base, and Griffith has raised a quite respectable $402,000. But he has only $297,000 left, and his opponent, incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, has been stockpiling a massive fund to help in a tough year — he has more than $2 million on hand. Boucher is already running ads, and he’s represented the district since 1982.

As Geraghty notes, in 2006, a number of Democrats that took out incumbent GOP members were significantly underfunded, so it is not out of the realm of possibility that Hurt and Griffith can win. In fact, Hurt is positioned very well in his race, even if you don't believe the 23% spread that Survey USA gives him. Griffith's route to victory is a little trickier and he will need a significant infusion of cash to define himself and to avoid letting Boucher provide the narrative.

Boucher Releases Ad, Griffith Says it Misleads Voters

The Roanoke Times notes today that Republican 9th District challenger Morgan Griffith says Rick Boucher's campaign ad released yesterday is not completely accurate when it comes to Cap and Trade.

The ad, which can be viewed here, touts Boucher's NRA endorsement, and goes on to claim he:

took on his own party to protect coal jobs in the energy bill.

Griffith pointed out that it is kind of hard to say you took on your party when you voted for a bill that:

will destroy the coal industry, raise electric bills and send more American
manufacturing jobs overseas to China.

The 9th district is another race that bears watching. While Boucher has been a long time fixture in the district, Griffith promises to give him the first real challenge. The current political climate may help Griffith if he is able to raise the money to respond on the airwaves to what is certain to be an advertising carpet bombing by Boucher.

Endangered Democrats Hold Big Cash Leads in 2nd, 5th and 9th Districts

The money reports are out and the three Democrats facing the toughest challenges, Glenn Nye (D-VA2), Tom Perriello (D-VA5) and Rick Boucher (D-VA9) have huge campaign war chest leads over their challengers. It should be noted that both Republican candidates, Scott Rigell (VA2) and State Senator Robert Hurt (VA5) had to use resources to win primaries in June. Delegate Morgan Griffith, who is challenging Boucher in the 9th had to win a convention nominating contest in May.

Both Nye and Perriello have taken the few opportunities they have had to support gun rights while in their freshman year in congress. Boucher has a long record of supporting gun owner rights and received an unusually early endorsement from the NRA in February. Rigell has no voting record but says he supports the rights of gun owners and sportsmen. Hurt has a great voting record on our issue as both a member of the House of Delegates and the State Senate, earning an "A" rating from the NRA-PVF in the last senate elections. Griffith has an equally long record of supporting gun rights during his time in the House of Delegates and received an "A+" rating in last year's House of Delegates elections.

In the 2nd District, Glenn Nye ended the fund raising quarter with $1.27 million on hand. Rigell ended the quarter with $226,970 on hand. Kenneth Golden, the former Virginia Beach Republican Committee Chairman who is running as an independent, reported having $1,313 as of June 30. Rigell has deep pockets is can be counted on to pump his money into the campaign to catch up to Nye.

In the 5th District, Representative Tom Perriello raised more than $660,000 and had $1.7 million cash on hand as of June 30. Hurt had $212,000 on hand.

In the 9th District House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith out raised Representative Rick Boucher bringing in $259,000 to Boucher’s $248,000 in Virginia's 9th District. Boucher however has a commanding lead in cash on hand with $2 million and went up on TV with his first commercial today. Griffith had $297,228 on hand as of June 30.

CQ Politics lists both the 2nd and 5th districts as toss-ups due to their normally Republican leanings. Perriello won the 5th in 2008 by less than 1/2% while John McCain handily won the district. Nye also won a close race but Obama barely carried the heavily military district. Boucher has held his seat for some 20 years and manages to win big even when his district is voting overwhelmingly for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket mainly because, as Bearing Drift notes, he takes care of his constituents. CQ Politics rates the 9th as Leans Democrat.

Griffith has the highest mountain to scale but even his task is not impossible. Boucher has some explaining to do for his support of Cap and Trade in his coal field district. Cap and Trade will decimate the workers in his district, one that is already the most depressed areas in the Commonwealth.

Incumbency brings money, and the GOP incumbents did as well as their Democrat counterparts. 1st District Representative Rob Wittman reported $519,586 on hand; 4th District Representative Randy Forbes reported $451,410 on hand; and, 7th District Representative Eric Cantor reported having $1.5 million cash on hand as of June 30. All three are good friends of gun owners and and have major party challengers but they are not well funded.

The 1st District challenger, Krystal Marie Ball, reported having $260,735 on hand as of June 30th. She is the only challenger to the incumbent Republicans that has close to six figures on hand.

The next reporting period will be the important test to see if the Republican challengers can cut in to the money leads of their opponents. For gun owners, the Virginia races in the 2nd, 5th, and 9th districts offer an opportunity to look at the total candidate as all (except Rigell) have records of support for our issue.

Democrats and Gun Rights

This Boston Globe story is good news for gun owners.

Democratic candidates in key states are embracing gun owners’ rights, winning favor from the National Rifle Association, a lobby that has long been the target of disdain from the party faithful.

It's good news because when gun owners don't have to worry about a candidate unfriendly to Second Amendment issues winning, then they can focus on other issues that may be important to them in the hope of getting the best candidate elected, not just the best candidate on gun rights.

Conservative gun owners who have expressed dismay that Harry Reid may receive the NRA endorsement should under stand that the NRA can disavow a candidate that has a good voting record. That is how much of their success has been achieved - having a rating system and endorsement that means something to candidates.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid, in a bruising campaign for reelection in Nevada, has conservative activists buzzing because the NRA is considering endorsing his reelection.

In the Nevada race, Sharron Angle also has a very good record on gun issues as a state legislator. With the gun issue settled, those working to unseat Reid can concentrate on convincing voters that while Reid may be good on the gun issue, he is horrible on other issues that are taking the country in the wrong direction.

The same can be said here in Virginia's 9th District. Incumbent Congressman Rick Boucher has already received the NRA endorsement. He is running against the equally good, Delegate Morgan Griffith, who as the Virginia House of Delegates Majority Leader, received an A+ rating in his last state house campaign. Gun owners don't have to be concerned about losing a good vote on our issue if they decide the Griffith is better on other issues.

“I think there’s been a change in the country as a whole,’’ said Jon Delano, an independent political analyst associated with Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. “Unless you’re from an urban area, where gun violence is so intense that there’s a feeling you need to control these weapons, the vast majority across the country do not support gun control.’’

When both parties respect freedom, gun owners win. While the leadership of the Democratic Party may not be pro-gun, individual candidates certainly are in many areas. That is a good thing for the Republic, and for gun owners.

Griffith Wins GOP Nod To Oppose Rep. Boucher

On Saturday, House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith won the GOP nod to face NRA endorsed and "A+" rated Representative Rick Boucher. Griffith won the Republican nomination at a Saturday convention where he prevailed on the first ballot over five lesser-known challengers. According to CQ Politics:

Republican officials expect that Griffith will give Boucher one of his closest races in a career in which the Congressman has usually won by overwhelming margins. The National Republican Congressional Committee has included Griffith in the top echelon of its "Young Guns" candidate recruitment program.

Unlike Boucher's previous opponents, Griffith has a voting record, including a great voting record on Second Amendment related issues where he earned an "A+" NRA rating in his 2009 reelection campaign for the House of Delegates.

This should be a very interesting race to watch. With the issue of the Right to Keep and Bear Arms being a draw between the two candidates, look for both to appeal to voters on other issues important in this south west Virginia district.

CQ Politics Changes Boucher Race From Safe Democratic To Likely Democratic

CQ Politics ran a front page article this morning on the 9th Congressional District seat currently held by Rick Boucher (D). Until today, CQ Politics had rated the race as a Safe Democratic seat but with all of the attention House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith has received in the last couple of weeks after announcing he would challenge Boucher, and the fact that he has been listed in the National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC) "Young Guns," the race has been changed to "Likely Democratic" meaning the publication views it as somewhat more competitive.

Boucher has continued to win in a district that gave John McCain 59% of the vote and Bob McDonnell 66% of the vote mainly because he is known to do some of the best constituent work of anyone in congress.

Griffith even conceded that for most of Boucher’s tenure in office he has consistently represented the views of his constituents. But he said that has changed since Democrats gained control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

“In the past, while he may have not voted 100 percent with the way the district would want, he has pretty much voted most of the time with the way the district would want. But I think in the past two years he has just clearly not done so,” Griffith said.

Add to that the fact that the day after Griffith announced, Boucher received an unusually early endorsement from the NRA (which was likely to endorse him anyway as he has consistently supported the rights of gun owners) and it would appear that Republicans would once again have a difficult time unseating this 14-year incumbent.

But the NRCC and Griffith believe this year could be different.

“Overall, the beliefs of the 9th district are definitely conservative, and Mr. Boucher has done an interesting job of portraying himself as representing those conservative values,” 9th district GOP Chairwoman Michelle Jenkins said. “But when you look at his voting record, you see that he does not reflect the conservative values that we do have here.”

Griffith and other Republicans have frequently criticized Boucher’s vote last spring in favor of cap-and-trade legislation. Republicans have said the measure, which has since stalled, would harm the district’s coal industry.

Boucher responds that by being part of the process he was able to neuter the "Cap and Trade" bill to blunt the impact on the region's coal industry. Expect Griffith to dig deep into that deal to see if it protects the workers of the district as Boucher claims.

Griffith still faces an up hill battle with Boucher sitting on a $1.7 million war chest. Griffith will not start raising money until the end of the General Assembly session which is scheduled to end on Saturday. Griffith is abiding by a law that forbids legislators from raising money for state races during the General Assembly. That law does not apply to federal campaigns but he is abiding by it.

As mentioned in the previous post about this race, the wild card this year is, unlike previous challengers to Boucher, Griffith has a voting record, including an "A+" rating from the NRA. As this campaign progresses, it will be interesting to see if Griffith can raise the money necessary to make it a truly competitive race.

Morgan Griffith to Challenge Rick Boucher in VA 9th

Roanoke NBC affiliate WDBJ and others are reporting that House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith plans to challenge Congressman Rick Boucher for his 9th District seat in Congress. The day after the announcment came out, the NRA endorsed Boucher for re-election. The endorsement was not unexpected given that Boucher is an incumbant, though the timing indicates Boucher likely believes that Griffith will give the sitting congressman a run for his money.

The 9th District has elected Democrat Boucher for the last 28 years while at the same time giving its votes to Republicans Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and John McCain. While Boucher is a reliable vote for the pro-2nd Amendment community, his challengers have always pointed out that he votes against his constituients' views on other issues. It is believed that the NRA Endorsement has made the difference in this very pro-gun district.

But what Boucher's previous challengers have not had that Griffith does, is a voting record. And Griffith's voting record in the House of Delegates is spotless. He has been the go-to-guy on the Militia, Police, and Public Safety Committee to shepherd legislation through subcommittee and the full committee. What Griffith brings to this race is the ability to match Boucher head-to-head on the firearm rights issue - thus allowing voters worried about their gun rights to look at other issues important to them knowing their 2nd Amendment Rights are safe with either candidate.

Boucher has a full war chest and Griffith cannot begin raising money until the end of the General Assembly. However, this will be a very interesting race to watch.

NRA-PVF Endorses Delegate Morgan Griffith

The NRA Political Victory Fund (PVF) has endorsed longtime 8th District Delegate Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) in his re-election campaign. Griffith said after the the endorsement:

This endorsement recognizes my consistent record in support of the rights of law-abiding gun owners during my sixteen years in the General Assembly.

Griffith is in his 8th term as Delegate for the 8th District. He has been a good friend to law abiding gun owners - supporting repeal of the ban on carrying concealed in restaurants like Applebees, Olive Garden, and other restaurants that serve alcohol in addition to food. He was also an opponent of requiring background checks on private sale of firearms at gun shows. He has supported every pro-rights bill that has come before the House and opposed all of the anti-rights bills.

All gun owners in the House of Delegates 8th district are encouraged to contact Delegate Griffith's campaign and find out how you can help him in his re-election bid.