Virginia Bellwether for Nation

For most of this election season, this blog has talked about two races - VA05 and VA09.  Those two featured the highest profile races where State Senator Robert Hurt won a bruising primary for the chance to take on endangered one term incumbent Tom Perriello.  The other race featured House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith taking on 28 year incumbent Rick Boucher.  Just days before Griffith jumped in the race, the NRA made an unprecedented February endorsement for Boucher.  It is generally understood that Boucher sought the early endorsement because he knew that Griffith would be a tough challenger - one who has an excellent pro-rights record in the General Assembly.

But there was always the race in VA02 that was also going to be an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat they had held since the late Owen Pickett retired in 2000.  That race features incumbent Glenn Nye and businessman Scott Rigell.  Rigell also won a spirited primary in June. 

Conventional wisdom held that Rigell and Hurt had a good shot to take back two long time GOP held seats because the districts are conservative (though VA02 barely went for Obama in 2008).   The 9th went big for McCain in 2008 but Boucher won with no opposition.  When he has been opposed in presidential years, Boucher would win while the district went Republican.  He even survived the last GOP wave of 1994.  But this year, he would have to defend his vote for Cap and Trade which most believe would further destroy his coal field district.

The final race that has gained notoriety is the rematch in VA11 between challenger Keith Fimian and Congressman Gerald "Gerry" Connolly.  The first indication that Connolly was in trouble was when he bucked his party and voted for congress to stay in session and deal with the expiration of the "Bush Tax Cuts."  NRA also has a field representative  working in the district to oversee activities for gun owner volunteers.  NRA has endorsed Fimian.

So, for those who are wonder just how big a night the GOP will have, here is my prediction based on Virginia races.  If Rigell (VA02) and Hurt (VA05) win, it is a good night for the GOP as they start to take back some of the seats lost over the last four years in conservative leaning districts.  As the night goes on, should Fimian (VA11) be added to the list of wins the wave has hit the shore and the predictions of 55 GOP pick-ups made by the well known prognosticators are well within reach.  Finally, if Boucher loses to Griffith (VA09), the hurricane has come ashore.

For some perspective, political analyst Charlie Cook has both the 2nd and 5th districts leaning GOP as both challengers have small leads of about 5 points.  Cook has the 11th a tossup with Connolly leading by 2 points and the 9th a tossup with Griffith up by 11 (though I don't know if the Cook's numbers are correct in the 9th as most polls have shown the numbers flipped).  Real Clear Politics lists the four the same as Cook.  The latest Survey USA poll has Griffith up by 1 point on Boucher.  Jim Geraghty has the 2nd, 5th and 11th going to the challengers and Boucher hanging on in the 9th.

New Poll Shows Tightening Race in 5th District, Lead for GOP In 2nd

A new poll released today by The Hill Newspaper shows that 2nd District Republican Scott Rigell holds a 42-36 lead over incumbent Glenn Nye.  The surprise is the race between State Senator Robert Hurt and incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello has tightened to 1 point, 45-44.  Perriello has trailed badly for most of the race up to now by as many as 16 points.  The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that while the new numbers are good news to the embattled Perriello, he has a serious hill that he must climb:

An added complication for Perriello is that in his district, 80 percent of Republicans say they are “very passionate” about voting, versus 68 percent of Democrats feeling that way.

But The Hill poll also found this:

Despite some ominous signs for Democrats in Perriello’s district, he’s one of the incumbents in this group who shows clear signs of strength. Perriello is one of the only freshman Democrats who leads his Republican challenger among male voters — 46 percent to 45.

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

The old saying that "it's not over till it's over certainly is playing out in this year's election.

Candidates Debate Vote to Adjourn

It should be no surprise that challengers to congressional incumbents are trying to use to their advantage the vote to adjourn congress without passing a budget or extending tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of the year.  Endangered incumbents Perriello (VA05), Connolly (VA11) and  Nye (VA02) voted with the Republicans to stay in session and take up the tax issue.  The fourth vulnerable incumbent, Rick Boucher (VA09) voted to adjourn.

Boucher's opponent, Morgan Griffith, told the Roanoke Times that Boucher's vote is a vote to raise taxes on the families of the 9th District.  Boucher, not surprisingly, disagrees:

"Congress is punting, and not dealing with a federal spending plan," Griffith said in the release. "They did not deal with an extension of Bush-era tax cuts which expire at the end of 2010, thus raising taxes on millions of Americans."

Boucher disputed that, saying the vote to adjourn was purely procedural and had nothing to do with the question of tax cuts.

"What they're trying to do is take every procedural vote we cast ... and talk about it in a totally different context," Boucher said. "I'll have to say excuse me, but this is just plain nonsense."

Boucher's denial is a little hard to swallow given that three of his colleagues from Virginia did not view it as a procedural vote.  Griffith says Boucher is making his point for him - that the House leadership speaks and he (Boucher) listens:

"It came out to be a one-vote margin. Perriello and other Democrats realized it was abdication and walking away from their responsibility. Boucher claims to be up there fighting for people and he's not paying attention."

Boucher, Perriello and Nye, received the endorsement of the NRA-PVF last Friday.  Griffith, and Hurt (VA05) received "A" ratings while Nye's opponent, Scott Rigell (VA02) and Connolly's opponent, Keith Fimian (VA11) received "AQ" ratings (Fimian was also endorsed by NRA-PVF).  Connelly received an "F" rating.

It's Official - NRA-PVF Endorses Endangered Incumbents Nye and Perriello

The NRA-PVF officially released endorsements for Virginia's congressional candidates today and two endorsements are sure to bring howls among some pro-rights supporters in the Commonwealth.  There is a strong anti-incumbent feeling in Virginia just as there is across the nation and it is especially strong in the 2nd and 5th congressional districts where Congressmen Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello are locked in tough re-election battles.  There has been every indication that Nye and Perriello would receive the NRA endorsement based on their short time in congress.  Today NRA confirmed that with the following reasons:

McDonald Case -- Signed the pro-gun congressional "friend of the court" brief in the McDonald case supporting the position that the Second Amendment is a fundamental right that protects all Americans


Holder Letter -- Signed the letter to Attorney General Eric Holder with 64 other House Democrats expressing opposition to the reenactment of the failed 1994 Clinton ban on semi-automatic firearms and ammunition magazines

BATFE Reform -- Cosponsored legislation to force much-needed reform of the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE)

Right-to-Carry Reciprocity -- Cosponsored the National Right-to-Carry Reciprocity Act that would extend federal protection of state right to carry licenses and permits across the country

Right-to-Carry in Parks -- Voted last year to allow carry license or permit holders to carry and transport firearms for self-defense in national parks and wildlife refuges

Protecting Gun Owners in Bankruptcy Act -- Voted for the Protecting Gun Owners in Bankruptcy Act, which would ensure that a person who filed for bankruptcy would not lose their firearms, thereby maintaining the fundamental right to self-defense

Second Amendment Enforcement Act -- Cosponsored the Second Amendment Enforcement Act that would repeal the D.C. gun ban/registration statute and restore the right of self-defense to law-abiding residents of our nation's capital

Hunting Heritage -- Supports protecting hunting, fishing, trapping and recreational shooting on public land managed by the Bureau of Land Management

Will this be enough to win both Nye and Perriello another term in congress?  While Nye's opponent has never held elective office and his NRA "AQ" rating is based on the responses on his questionnaire, Perriello's opponent has a long history as a member of the General Assembly supporting the Second Amendment.  So Robert Hurt earned the same "A" that Perriello earned.  Gun owners will have to decide which of the candidates will best represent their interests in Washington.  It should be an interesting 30 days.

Four Incumbent Democrats Get Bad Polling News

Jim Geraghty reports over on NRO's Campaign Spot that four Virginia Democrats received some bad news from a recent poll conducted by ccAdvertising.  Three of the Democrats are trailing and one is leading but locked in a close race.  It should be noted the polls include a large number of undecideds.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.

The three point spread in the 9th might explain why Boucher has done something in this race that he has rarely done before - mention his opponent by name.  The Roanoke Times reports that Boucher is running an attack ad against Morgan Griffith.  Boucher was recently pounded in an ad by Griffith tying him to President Obama (Obama lost the 9th in 2008) as well as by ads run by a independent group linking Boucher to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  A Boucher spokeswomen denies that polling has anything to do with Boucher's shift in campaign tactics.

So far, Boucher is the only incumbent Democrat to have officially received an endorsement from the NRA.  The Perriello campaign  "proudly announced" on its web site on September 23rd "that it expects to receive the endorsement of the NRA" but nothing has been announced by the NRA yet.   The NRA-PVF web site notes that endorsements are "coming soon."  There has been no word from the Nye campaign regarding an NRA endorsement.  For their part, both Griffith and Hurt have "A" ratings from their last General Assembly campaigns.  Griffith has been instrumental in moving pro-rights legislation through the House of Delegates.  Hurt can claim his own support for the rights of gun owners with this letter from the NRA.  Rigell has no voting record.

It can be safely said that Connolly will not be expecting an NRA endorsement.

Endangered Democrats Hold Big Cash Leads in 2nd, 5th and 9th Districts

The money reports are out and the three Democrats facing the toughest challenges, Glenn Nye (D-VA2), Tom Perriello (D-VA5) and Rick Boucher (D-VA9) have huge campaign war chest leads over their challengers. It should be noted that both Republican candidates, Scott Rigell (VA2) and State Senator Robert Hurt (VA5) had to use resources to win primaries in June. Delegate Morgan Griffith, who is challenging Boucher in the 9th had to win a convention nominating contest in May.

Both Nye and Perriello have taken the few opportunities they have had to support gun rights while in their freshman year in congress. Boucher has a long record of supporting gun owner rights and received an unusually early endorsement from the NRA in February. Rigell has no voting record but says he supports the rights of gun owners and sportsmen. Hurt has a great voting record on our issue as both a member of the House of Delegates and the State Senate, earning an "A" rating from the NRA-PVF in the last senate elections. Griffith has an equally long record of supporting gun rights during his time in the House of Delegates and received an "A+" rating in last year's House of Delegates elections.

In the 2nd District, Glenn Nye ended the fund raising quarter with $1.27 million on hand. Rigell ended the quarter with $226,970 on hand. Kenneth Golden, the former Virginia Beach Republican Committee Chairman who is running as an independent, reported having $1,313 as of June 30. Rigell has deep pockets is can be counted on to pump his money into the campaign to catch up to Nye.

In the 5th District, Representative Tom Perriello raised more than $660,000 and had $1.7 million cash on hand as of June 30. Hurt had $212,000 on hand.

In the 9th District House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith out raised Representative Rick Boucher bringing in $259,000 to Boucher’s $248,000 in Virginia's 9th District. Boucher however has a commanding lead in cash on hand with $2 million and went up on TV with his first commercial today. Griffith had $297,228 on hand as of June 30.

CQ Politics lists both the 2nd and 5th districts as toss-ups due to their normally Republican leanings. Perriello won the 5th in 2008 by less than 1/2% while John McCain handily won the district. Nye also won a close race but Obama barely carried the heavily military district. Boucher has held his seat for some 20 years and manages to win big even when his district is voting overwhelmingly for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket mainly because, as Bearing Drift notes, he takes care of his constituents. CQ Politics rates the 9th as Leans Democrat.

Griffith has the highest mountain to scale but even his task is not impossible. Boucher has some explaining to do for his support of Cap and Trade in his coal field district. Cap and Trade will decimate the workers in his district, one that is already the most depressed areas in the Commonwealth.

Incumbency brings money, and the GOP incumbents did as well as their Democrat counterparts. 1st District Representative Rob Wittman reported $519,586 on hand; 4th District Representative Randy Forbes reported $451,410 on hand; and, 7th District Representative Eric Cantor reported having $1.5 million cash on hand as of June 30. All three are good friends of gun owners and and have major party challengers but they are not well funded.

The 1st District challenger, Krystal Marie Ball, reported having $260,735 on hand as of June 30th. She is the only challenger to the incumbent Republicans that has close to six figures on hand.

The next reporting period will be the important test to see if the Republican challengers can cut in to the money leads of their opponents. For gun owners, the Virginia races in the 2nd, 5th, and 9th districts offer an opportunity to look at the total candidate as all (except Rigell) have records of support for our issue.