Gun Control Groups Claim Credit for Fimian Defeat

The Coalition to Stop Gun Violence says that 11th District Republican Keith Fimian's support for the rights of law abiding gun owners is what defeated him on Tuesday.

Gun violence prevention advocates and Virginia Tech survivors applaud voters in Virginia’s 11th congressional district for handing a stinging loss to Republican candidate Keith Fimian. While a wave election was sweeping the country and the rest of the Commonwealth, Fimian finds himself 820 votes behind Democratic incumbent Rep. Gerry Connolly pending a possible recount.

Connolly currently holds a margin of between 800-900 votes over Fimian.  While it is true Fimian had the endorsement of the NRA-PVF and that a Bloomberg front group began running ads against Fimian for his pro-rights stand in the final week of the campaign, to say that his support for the rights of law abiding gun owners is what cost him the election may be a stretch.  The district supported Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling, and Ken Cuccinelli in 2009 as all three won statewide office.  All three of these candidates were at least as pro-rights (and in Cuccinelli's case probably more) as Fimian and none of them supports the position of CSGV, Omar Samaha, or the Brady Campaign, on the so-called "gun show loophole." 

Virginia Bellwether for Nation

For most of this election season, this blog has talked about two races - VA05 and VA09.  Those two featured the highest profile races where State Senator Robert Hurt won a bruising primary for the chance to take on endangered one term incumbent Tom Perriello.  The other race featured House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith taking on 28 year incumbent Rick Boucher.  Just days before Griffith jumped in the race, the NRA made an unprecedented February endorsement for Boucher.  It is generally understood that Boucher sought the early endorsement because he knew that Griffith would be a tough challenger - one who has an excellent pro-rights record in the General Assembly.

But there was always the race in VA02 that was also going to be an opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a seat they had held since the late Owen Pickett retired in 2000.  That race features incumbent Glenn Nye and businessman Scott Rigell.  Rigell also won a spirited primary in June. 

Conventional wisdom held that Rigell and Hurt had a good shot to take back two long time GOP held seats because the districts are conservative (though VA02 barely went for Obama in 2008).   The 9th went big for McCain in 2008 but Boucher won with no opposition.  When he has been opposed in presidential years, Boucher would win while the district went Republican.  He even survived the last GOP wave of 1994.  But this year, he would have to defend his vote for Cap and Trade which most believe would further destroy his coal field district.

The final race that has gained notoriety is the rematch in VA11 between challenger Keith Fimian and Congressman Gerald "Gerry" Connolly.  The first indication that Connolly was in trouble was when he bucked his party and voted for congress to stay in session and deal with the expiration of the "Bush Tax Cuts."  NRA also has a field representative  working in the district to oversee activities for gun owner volunteers.  NRA has endorsed Fimian.

So, for those who are wonder just how big a night the GOP will have, here is my prediction based on Virginia races.  If Rigell (VA02) and Hurt (VA05) win, it is a good night for the GOP as they start to take back some of the seats lost over the last four years in conservative leaning districts.  As the night goes on, should Fimian (VA11) be added to the list of wins the wave has hit the shore and the predictions of 55 GOP pick-ups made by the well known prognosticators are well within reach.  Finally, if Boucher loses to Griffith (VA09), the hurricane has come ashore.

For some perspective, political analyst Charlie Cook has both the 2nd and 5th districts leaning GOP as both challengers have small leads of about 5 points.  Cook has the 11th a tossup with Connolly leading by 2 points and the 9th a tossup with Griffith up by 11 (though I don't know if the Cook's numbers are correct in the 9th as most polls have shown the numbers flipped).  Real Clear Politics lists the four the same as Cook.  The latest Survey USA poll has Griffith up by 1 point on Boucher.  Jim Geraghty has the 2nd, 5th and 11th going to the challengers and Boucher hanging on in the 9th.

Jim Geraghty's Election Predictions

National Review's Jim Geraghty has posted his election predictions.  In the four closely watched Virginia races, Jim is picking three challengers to pick off the incumbents. The three challengers are Scott Rigell (VA02), Robert Hurt (VA05) and Keith Fimian (VA11).  That last on may be the biggest shocker should the prediction be correct given the demographics of the 11th District.  Geraghty is picking Boucher to hold on to his 9th District seat.  We should know by 9:00 PM if the predictions come true.

Gun Control Surfaces in Virginia's 11th Congressional District Race

Ben Pershing is reporting over on the Washington Post Virginia Politics blog that gun control has surfaced as an issue in the 11th Congressional District race between Republican Keith Fimian and Democrat incumbent Congressman Gerald Connolly .  Omar Samaha, the brother of Virginia Tech victim Reema Samaha, appears in a new ad from a Bloomberg funded group calling itself Americans United for Safe Streets targeting Republican Keith Fimian.  Fimian is endorsed by the NRA-PVF in this year's election. 

Samaha has become the darling of the gun ban lobby since the Virginia Tech shootings.  He has appeared before the Virginia General Assembly every year since the shootings to push for a bill to put gun shows out of business in Virginia.  The ad is basically the same message with a different target that has been used to apply pressure to the General Assembly as well as then candidate Bob McDonnell to support legislation to close the so-called "gun show loophole."

Americans United for Safe Streets filed with the Federal Election Commission for the first time Wednesday, reporting that it had received a single donation of $153,000 from Bloomberg and was spending all of it on the anti-Fimian campaign. The group, organized under section 527 of the tax code, normally files its reports with the IRS. Those reports show the group has received just $1,500 in itemized donations this cycle from people other than Bloomberg, who has donated a total of $1.5 million.

In the ad, Samaha wants viewers to ask Fimian why he won't commit to close the "gun show loophole."  According to the blog post, Connelly is also trying to use an interview that Fimian did with a local TV station where Fimian stated if one of the students in the classrooms target by Cho had been armed, the out come may have been different.

If you live in the 11th District, please contact the Fimian campaign and offer to assist the campaign in these closing days.

Candidates Debate Vote to Adjourn

It should be no surprise that challengers to congressional incumbents are trying to use to their advantage the vote to adjourn congress without passing a budget or extending tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of the year.  Endangered incumbents Perriello (VA05), Connolly (VA11) and  Nye (VA02) voted with the Republicans to stay in session and take up the tax issue.  The fourth vulnerable incumbent, Rick Boucher (VA09) voted to adjourn.

Boucher's opponent, Morgan Griffith, told the Roanoke Times that Boucher's vote is a vote to raise taxes on the families of the 9th District.  Boucher, not surprisingly, disagrees:

"Congress is punting, and not dealing with a federal spending plan," Griffith said in the release. "They did not deal with an extension of Bush-era tax cuts which expire at the end of 2010, thus raising taxes on millions of Americans."

Boucher disputed that, saying the vote to adjourn was purely procedural and had nothing to do with the question of tax cuts.

"What they're trying to do is take every procedural vote we cast ... and talk about it in a totally different context," Boucher said. "I'll have to say excuse me, but this is just plain nonsense."

Boucher's denial is a little hard to swallow given that three of his colleagues from Virginia did not view it as a procedural vote.  Griffith says Boucher is making his point for him - that the House leadership speaks and he (Boucher) listens:

"It came out to be a one-vote margin. Perriello and other Democrats realized it was abdication and walking away from their responsibility. Boucher claims to be up there fighting for people and he's not paying attention."

Boucher, Perriello and Nye, received the endorsement of the NRA-PVF last Friday.  Griffith, and Hurt (VA05) received "A" ratings while Nye's opponent, Scott Rigell (VA02) and Connolly's opponent, Keith Fimian (VA11) received "AQ" ratings (Fimian was also endorsed by NRA-PVF).  Connelly received an "F" rating.