Jim Geraghty On Tim Kaine's Indecision on Webb's Senate Seat

Knowing this:

Kaine spoke by phone with President Barack Obama last week about a potential Senate bid in Virginia. And the President told television station WWBT in Richmond, Virginia that he thinks Kaine "would be a great senator from Virginia if he chose to do that."

The conventional wisdom is that the White House is pressuring Kaine to run to keep the seat in party hands, but a source with knowledge of the situation tells CNN that the White House is giving Kaine space on this decision and that there's "no arm twisting at any level."

Jim is probably correct:

Obama's made his sales pitch, and Kaine is still undecided. I think we can conclude that if he really wanted to run, he would have announced by now.

I've written before that Kaine genuinely likes Richmond.  The fact that he is not jumping up and down to run tells me that he does not have the "fire-in-the-belly" for this one.

Kaine First Choice of Virgina Democrats to Replace Webb

Former anti-gun Democrat Governor Tim Kaine still hasn't made up his mind, but if attendees, or those who spoke from afar, at this past weekend's Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner had their way, Tim Kaine would be running.  Or at least those that Roll Call Politics caught up with at the event.

There was nothing subtle about the speeches from the podium Saturday night as Democrat after Democrat made the case for Kaine. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) did not mince words in a recorded video message to the party, "It is my hope that my friend of 30 years ... Tim Kaine decides to run for the seat."

"I hope Tim Kaine will do it. He gets first dibs," state Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple said.

State Sen. Donald McEachin summed it up: "Everyone is waiting on Tim."

Folks who know Kaine believe he really does not want to run, but with the state Democratic bench being filled with only those who have lost an election or primary in the last two years, Kaine is the only one who can say he has not lost recently.   Kaine can also count on a strong Obama effort to once again try and carry the Commonwealth in 2012.  But, Kaine also knows that the party that wins Virginia in the presidential race will likely be the same party that wins the senate race.  Does he really want to give up a year and a half to campaign for himself when he can spend it campaigning around the nation?

If Kaine says No to Senate Bid, Perriello May Say Yes

One term former Congressman Tom Perriello is considering running for Webb's U.S. Senate seat in 2012 should Kaine ultimately say no after his expected conversation on the subject with President Obama, according to Roll Call Politics via the Washington Post.

Defeated Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.) would consider running for the Senate in 2012 if Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine opts not to enter, Perriello told the Washington Post on Wednesday.

“It’s obviously nice” to hear his name mentioned as a contender to succeed Sen. Jim Webb (D), who announced last week that he would not seek re-election in 2012, Perriello said.

Perriello narrowly won the 5th District seat from then Congressman Virgil Goode in 2008 but lost the seat to former State Senator Robert Hurt in 2010.  Perriello was endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund (PVF) in 2010, which was not received well by some NRA members in the district.

There are currently two candidates vying for the Republican nomination - former U.S. Senator George Allen and Tea Party activist Jamie Ratke.

Webb Says No to Second Term

U.S. Senator Jim Webb announced today that he will not seek a second term.  This likely puts another state up for grabs as a GOP pick-up and will put an end to talk of a vaunted Allen-Webb rematch.  There has been speculation for months that Webb might not seek re-election.  Had he sought a second term, he most likely would have made a strong case for an NRA endorsement, though he did vote for both of President Obama's Supreme Court Nominees - Sotomayor and Kagan.

Webb's departure makes it more likely that former Senator George Allen can claim the mantle of the only candidate with a proven record of supporting the rights of law abiding gun owners.  Even before Webb's announcement, there has been talk on political circles that former DNC Chairman and failed gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe would shift gears from another expected run for governor to the U.S. Senate race should Webb bow out.  Because of his ability to self fund, McAuliffe will be considered the front runner for the Democratic nomination.

Roll Call Rates Webb Seat Toss Up

While Virginia will be electing a new House of Delegates and State Senate in 2011, the prognosticators are already looking at the 2012 U.S. Senate race.  More and more it is looking like former U.S. Senator George Allen, a true friend to gun owners, is going to run.  There are other Republicans that have also indicated an interest. As of yet, incumbent Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 in a stunning upset, has not indicated whether he will run.  Webb has voted the right way on bills directly related to gun rights but voted for both Sonia Sotomayor and Elana Kagan for the Supreme court.  Roll Call had this to say in moving its rating from Leans Democrat to Tossup:

Democrats could have a difficult time holding this seat even if Webb decides to run. In the past year, Republicans ended a streak of disappointing election cycles. The GOP swept the statewide offices in 2009 and won back three House seats in 2010.

 Allen has been very visible since the beginning of the 2010 election cycle too. 

Allen has made his intention to run clear for months by speaking to any Republican gathering around the state that invited him. He also made a big splash at the party’s annual meeting at a Northern Virginia hotel last month by renting out the entire restaurant to host a party — while most potential candidates rented suites.

Allen signed Virginia's concealed carry reform into law as Governor and has been a strong proponent of the right to keep and bear arms.  Webb carried some water on the Thune Amendment (National Reciprocity) in 2009.  But Webb voted for two of the most anti-gun Supreme Court nominees in recent memory.  Gun owners need to focus on the 2011 General Assembly races for now but 2012 is getting an early start none-the-less.

Thune Amendment Fails 58-39

The Thune Amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1390) failed this afternoon on a vote of 58-39, lacking the required 60 votes to invoke cloture. There were more than enough votes to pass the amendment but those opposing the amendment decided to filibuster the vote - thus requiring 60 votes for passage. Virginia's Senators Mark Warner and Jim Webb both voted with gun owners and our right to self defense and voted for the amendment. Please be sure to contact Senators Warner and Webb and thank them for standing with law abiding gun owners.

Jim Webb Supports Thune Amendment

Webb is now speaking in favor of the Thune Amendment.

National CCW Reciprocity Vote Set for Today

All gun owners need to get on the phone right now. Today the Senate will vote on John Thune's Concealed Carry Reciprocity Amendment to S.1390 (the National Defense Authorization Act). As a part of the consideration of that legislation, Senators John Thune (R-SD) and David Vitter (R-LA) have offered an amendment to provide for interstate recognition of Right-to-Carry permits. Senator Warner's phone number is (202) 224-2023 and Senator Webb's number is (202) 224-4024.

Update: 10:44 am - Illinois Senator Dick Durbin is leading the fight in hopes of rounding up at least 41 votes against the amendment to prevent it from being considered. This means it is extremely important that you call Warner and Webb now to urge them to support the amendment.

Update: 10:57 AM - Watch Debate live here. Feinstein is currently spreading misinformation.

National Concealed Carry Reciprocity Vote Coming Soon

Daniel White, the Cleveland Gun Rights Examiner writes this morning about the Thune-Vitter amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (S. 1390) which would provide for interstate recognition of Right-to-Carry permits. NRA-ILA reported on Friday that it is highly likely the amendment would come up for a vote today or tomorrow.

The Thune-Vitter amendment recognizes that responsible, law-abiding Americans deserve the right to defend themselves and their families when they cross state lines. Passing interstate Right-to-Carry legislation will help further reduce crime by deterring criminals, and—most important of all—will protect the right of honest Americans to protect themselves when deterrence fails.

We are a highly mobile society. There is absolutely no reason that a Virginian, who has a concealed handgun permit (CHP), and takes a cross country trip, should not be able to carry their firearm to be prepared should he or she need it for self defense. Call Mark Warner and Jim Webb and encourage them to vote for the Thune-Vitter amendment on concealed carry national reciprocity to S.1390.

Democrats Show Little Taste for Gun Control

I can find some fault with the content of this article (like the characterization of semi-automatic firearms as "rapid-fire") but the premise is good for gun owners - that Democrats in Congress are expressing little interest in gun control. Take for instance this quote from Ill. Senator Dick Durbin during debate on the D.C. gun rights amendment:

We do not debate guns around here much anymore. Basically, we reached a point where there are not many people who will stick their political necks out to vote for sensible gun control — too big a hassle.

Durbin is one of the ones that would like to pass more gun control but Democrats like Virginia's Mark Warner and Jim Webb have both gone on record this year supporting gun owner rights by voting for the pro-rights amendment to the D.C. Voting Rights Act.

More on Obama'sForay into Virginia

The national press, which has been fawning over Barack Obama since he won Iowa in January, continues to point to Virginia as a road map to the White House for Obama. Today's Washington Post pointed out that Democrats suggest that Obama is uniquely qualified to put Virginia in play. The Post stated that Democrats point to demographic changes in the past four years, becoming more diverse, more suburban and wealthier -- factors Democrats say helped secure statewide victories for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Senator Jim Webb.

What Democrats do not say is that both of the Republican opponents ran terrible campaigns. Democrats also point to the fact that Virginia has a significant African American population (about 20 percent) and is home to a comparatively well-educated electorate in vote-rich Northern Virginia, constituencies that have supported Obama in huge numbers.

Obama soared into Virginia yesterday, borrowing parts of the strategies of Kaine and former governor Mark R. Warner, who is running for the U.S. Senate this year. Kaine, Webb and (less likely because he is the favorite to pick up a Republican Senate seat) Warner all have been mentioned as possible vice presidential picks for Obama, further increasing the focus on Virginia.

In Bristol in southwestern Virginia's coal country, Obama took his campaign to the heart of the Appalachian region, where Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) ran strong in the primaries and a region full of those "bitter" folks who "cling to guns and God." Obama was joined by Warner, who has appealed to rural voters.

But, Obama, you are no Mark Warner. Guns owners must get active this election season because an Obama administration with an emboldened Democratic Majority in the House and Senate could spell bad news for gun rights.

Obama thinks Virginia is "In Play"

Presumed Democratic Presidential Nominee Senator Barack Obama seems to think that Virginia is in play this year, having handily won the Commonwealth's Democratic Primary earlier this year. He was in Bristol today with U.S. Senate candidate and former Governor Mark Warner and will be in Prince William County later today with U.S. Senator Jim Webb. It should be noted that both Warner and Webb have verifiable gun rights credentials. Obama is the most anti-gun presidential candidate in history.

While Warner did not veto any of the pro-gun bills that arrived on his desk while he was Governor, he does have some history of stating support for certain gun control laws. He is on record as supporting the Clinton gun ban (Washington Post, 10/9/96). Also while running for Governor, Warner said he opposed the repeal of Virginia’s handgun rationing law (one gun-a-month) and said he would veto a bill to repeal it. He also supported Fairfax County's attempts to ban guns in recreation centers saying “If this kind of legislation went through, I'd sign it,” but added “My sense is under the current General Assembly, you're not going to see this kind of law go through.” (Washington Post, July 21, 2001).

Warner is running against another pro-gun former governor, Jim Gilmore, to fill the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. Given that Warner has stated that he supported the Clinton Gun Ban (ban on semi-autos purposely misnamed "assault weapons) and that Obama has said he wants to reinstate the ban, Virginia gun owners should take every opportunity to press Governor Warner on the issue and how he would vote if he is elected. Governor Gilmore is a member of the NRA Board of Directors.

Governor Kaine Opposes Overturning D.C. Gun Ban

This one got by me with everything going on at the General Assembly. On the January 8th edition of the WWBT 12 (Richmond NBC Affiliate) evening news, they did a report on Attorney General Bob McDonnell's joining an amicus brief supporting Heller in Heller vs. District of Columbia that is headed to the Supreme Court.

The report quoted McDonnell as saying “This is the most important Second Amendment case in all of history. Virginia has pretty much always understood it to be an individual right and so the gun laws in Virginia have reflected that philosophy."

Kaine on the other hand doesn't agree and doesn't advocate overturning D.C.'s ban. Gov. Kaine told WWBT “I don't support overturning what DC has done in this instance but the AG has by statute clear ability to file legal briefs in his capacity as attorney general and you know that could lead him to file briefs i don't completely agree with but the statute is very plain.”

U.S. Senator, Jim Webb (D-Virginia) to his credit agrees with McDonnell that the handgun ban in D.C.should be overturned. Webb told WWBT, “What they've done in my opinion is put a burden on law abiding people who have difficulty in defending themselves.”

Yet Kaine stills insists that he "supports the Second Amendment." Just more proof when a politician will not detail what he or she means when they make that blanket statement, you better hold on to your guns.

You can read the entire report and watch video of the report here.