Election Post Mortem

If you went to bed early last night, you woke up to the news that the Democrats flipped the needed seats in the State Senate to take complete control of the Virginia General Assembly in a generation.  It is the first time they have had control of the House of Delegates in 20 years.

Two things most likely contributed to last night's results  - turnout and a court redrawn assembly-district map.  Appropriations Chairman Christ Jones lost his race in the 76th House District.  Jones' district boundaries were basically flipped on a 90 degree turn by the court after racial gerrymandering was found by the court.  Northam failed to come to an agreement on a new map with House Republicans which set up the court to redraw about 11 districts.  This year's election will be the only one under the court drawn districts but Democrats and the Governor will have complete control of the 2021 Redistricting.  This morning, State Senator Elect Joe Morrissey said on John Reid's WRVA morning program that Democrats should follow through on passing a resolution form a "non-partisan" redistricting commission but he said he fears Democrats will want to exact retribution on Republicans and district them into oblivion.  Morrissey said that would be a mistake.

Also, it appears that turnout could be a record for an "off-year" election.  Typically these elections feature low turnout.  Since President Trump's election  Democrats have worked hard to turn out their voters in state and local elections.

Speaking at a victory rally last night, Governor Northam said that voters had spoken in favor of Democratic priorities like gun control.  Speaker of the House Kirk Cox, who survived the redistricting of his district to defeat three-time candidate Sheilia Bynum-Coleman, said Republicans would work with Democrats where they could and "speak out against overreaching policies where we must, and always seek to guard the best interests of the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia."  Cox raised an unprecedented $1.8 million in a Virginia House race.  While Cox was sounding conciliatory, House Minority leader Todd Gilbert sounded a more ominous tone saying "Make no mistake: radical liberals from out of our Commonwealth will soon demand a return on the tens of millions they invested to elect a far-left Democratic majority."

Earlier this week, Fletch Daniels provided a warning at the American Thinker.  He said what has happened in Fairfax, Virginia, a formerly Republican bastion, is a warning for the rest of the country:

My home county of Fairfax, Virginia was once a safe suburban area with some of the best performing public schools in the nation. It's now a blinking warning sign to America as it hangs on the edge of complete disaster thanks to unchecked immigration and Democrat takeover of the government.

Even with the high concentration of government workers, Fairfax County was once a Republican bastion before it became a political battleground. The Bush/Cheney ticket won the county in a close race in 2000 and then lost it badly in 2004 due to a significant increase in Democrat votes.

Fairfax's descent into its current state started with a wave immigration, much of it illegal, into the area which washed away Republican political viability.

Former Delegate and VSSA member Bill Janis warned about this very thing - a change in the demographics - when he spoke to the attendees of the 2005 Annual Meeting.  He told us then that we needed to reach out to those new residents or they would have no connection to our 2nd Amendment freedoms.

So having said all this, what is the take away from last night's results?  One, don't throw away your base when you are running in a re-election simply because you think those issues like the 2nd Amendment that got you elected in the first place, are now an albatross.  Glen Sturtevant's campaign is a perfect example of this.  Tidewater based talk show host John Fredericks said yesterday:

This is the epitome of the silliest GOP campaign run this cycle. Does anyone have a clue what Sturdevant stands for? Or care? His television ice cream and soccer ball ads were laughable. We mocked them on our show on a daily basis. He abandoned his base on every key issue, and ran clear away from President Trump.

While Sturtevant was losing, Kirk Cox won by five points, even while his district went from being 63% GOP to 46.8% GOP (based on previous voting results).  He worked hard, and did not abandon his core or support, including his strong support for the 2nd Amendment.  Another example was Senator Amanda Chase.  She was beat up relentlessly by the Richmond Times Dispatch and an outside pack called Fund Her Virginia PAC.  In the end, she never backed away from her strong 2nd Amendment stance and she won by 11%.

In the end, the House lost 6 pro-rights members and the Senate lost 2.  Gun owners will need to be engaged so your legislators know where you stand.  VSSA will work our relationships with legislators with the intent of defeating legislation.  For instance, Senator Chap Peterson has been someone we have been able to work with on concealed carry issues.  He was a big reason that Terry McAuliffe overrode Mark Herring's attack on reciprocity.  When necessary, we will adopt what has been used in states - the courts - when necessary.

We need all gun owners on board.  If you have friends at your gun club that are not VSSA members, encourage them to join.  This is an all hands on deck moment.

Contributions was Never the NRA's Strength in Elections

Delmarvanow.com is reporting that Bloomberg's Everytown is outspending the NRA in Virginia this election.

October brought more donations to candidates in Virginia's elections and more knocks on constituent doors from both sides of the gun lobby.

Democratic coffers — which have reached historic levels of reported fundraising — swelled with October donations from Everytown for Gun Safety, a lobby group focused on reducing gun violence.

Everytown contributed $938,238 to the Democratic party in 2019, according to The Virginia Public Access Project. Over $600,000 of that total was given in September.

Everytown outspent the National Rifle Association this year, which donated $273,000 to Republican candidates. In September, based on campaign finance reports, the NRA donated a little over $54,000.

Bloomberg's mouthpiece The Trace is taking delight in sharing the report.

A gun reform group is vastly outspending the NRA in the run-up to Virginia's election. Everytown for Gun Safety contributed more than $600,000 to Democrats in September, while the NRA gave $54,000 to Republicans. Gun violence has emerged as a pivotal issue in the state’s upcoming legislative elections in the wake of the Virginia Beach mass shooting in May, which claimed 12 lives. “The politics of guns in Virginia has changed dramatically over the last few years,” Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, told the Capital News Service. (Everytown's non-political arm provides grants to The Trace.

But the fact is, money was never the strength of the NRA in elections, its strength was grassroots activity to turn out gun owners on elections day. NRA's Catherine Mortensen points out that is what they have been focused on this year as well.

The NRA has also been busy encouraging voter turnout this election. NRA grassroots activists knocked on 100,000 doors of targeted voters in recent months, according to Catherine Mortensen, NRA media liaison.

Also, the NRA rallied members at the State Capitol during the July special session that adjourned quickly with no action taken.

I was at the Capitol for the Special Session and the line of gun owners stretched around the building and it got longer and the time it took to get in the building took over an hour. 

Election day is November 5th. Make sure every gun owner you know votes!

Republicans Start from Behind in Election by not Challenging Seats Held by Dems

Yesterday, Jim Geraghty from National Review joined Cam Edwards on Bearing Arms’ Cam & Co. to talk about what’s at stake in this year’s elections.  Cam noted that there is a troubling sign from Republicans: the large number of seats currently held by Democrats that aren’t even being contested. He rightly pointed out that you can’t win if you’re not even competing, and before a vote is even cast Democrats and gun control advocates are already halfway to their goal of 51 seats in the House of Delegates. Jim Geraghty pointed out that if gun control groups are successful at flipping Virginia’s legislature, you can be certain they’ll take their game plan to dozens of other states in the 2020 election cycle.  Take a look at the interview below.

National Gun Ban Group Drops $300,000 on Misleading Ad to Influence Virginia Election

Dave Workman lays out the details at Ammoland.com.  Workman points out that the ad uses a common tactic of the gun ban lobby - combining suicides with homicides to get to the "Guns kill more than 1,000 Virginians every year" number. The breakdown Workman provided is below:

According to the FBI data, last year saw 391 murders, of which 297 involved firearms. Handguns are linked to 141 of those slayings, rifles accounted for eight and shotguns were used in five more. There were 143 murders in which the firearm was not identified. That’s down from the 453 murders reported by the FBI in 2017. Of those, 338 involved firearms, with 156 committed with handguns, and 11 each with rifles or shotguns. There were 160 slayings in which the firearm was “unknown.”

The gun ban lobby has coined a new term  - "gun reform" - when pushing their agenda.  The only thing their proposals equal is an infringement of the rights of Virginia's law abiding gun owners.  If we don't show up at the polls in November, they will pass every proposal they have been pushing for the last 20 years, and Governor Northam will sign them.

Gun Ban Lobby Has a Problem with Delegate Hugo Targeting Real Causes of Violence

Below is an image of a recent mailer that Delegate Tim Hugo sent in his re-election campaign.

If you click the image, you can see that Delegate Hugo is touting the legislation he has sponsored, and (with the exception of so-called "red flag" legislation) passed to address those who use firearms illegally.  None of the measures that passed impact law abiding gun owners, and it seems that is what the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (CSGV) doesn't like.  The called him out on Twitter, and used an image of a recent post from this blog to accuse him of serving the "gun lobby".

.@TimHugo campaign sent out a mailing on how he “supports” he was on gun violence prevention, yet here is the write up on his race from @vssa & amplified by @VCDL_ORG.

Hugo is trying to fool the voters of #hd40 — he serves the gun lobby, not safety of Virginians. @HelmerVA pic.twitter.com/8xZx9Piwnw

— Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (@CSGV) October 9, 2019

It appears they only support measures that infringe on the rights of law abiding gun owners because they also called out Ohio Governor Mike DeWine because the anti-violence proposals he outlined yesterday did not included any of the favored gun ban proposals touted by groups like CSGV.

Our Director of State Affairs @Jenifers: “In days following shooting, people across Buckeye state called for state officials to ‘do something’ to address scourge of gun violence. Despite public outcry for action, @GovMikeDeWine has done almost nothing"https://t.co/10SiipQR3J

— Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (@CSGV) October 9, 2019

Don't be fooled.  Groups like CSGV know nothing about firearm safety.  They don't teach how to safely use a firearm because they don't want you to own firearms.  They use the term "gun safety" to mask their real agenda - infringing on your right to keep an bear arms.  But now that Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke has let the cat out of the bag, the charade is over.

Gun owners support real solutions to address crime committed with firearms, not talking point slogans for the sake of just "doing something".  And that is why the gun ban lobby is opposing Delegate Hugo.

Christopher Newport University Poll Shows We Have a Lot of Work to Do Before Election Day

A new poll released October 7th, by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, shows a significant enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans going into the final month of the campaign. According to the poll, Democrats are leading Republicans by 13 points among likely voters, 49% to 36%, with a huge advantage over Republicans on voter enthusiasm, 62% to 49%. The poll also notes that 84% of Democrats say they will "definitely vote," compared with 74% of Republicans and 75% of independents:

"Given the significant interest and enthusiasm gaps measured in this survey, we expect some version of the Trump bump to manifest in the 2019 Virginia state legislative elections,” said Rachel Bitecofer, the study’s author and the Wason Center’s elections analyst.

Voters are more likely to vote for candidates advocating gun control than those who do not, the poll found, with 83% of likely voters in favor of expanding background checks and 67% of likely voters indicating they would be more likely to support a candidate who supports banning assault weapons.

The results of the poll were based on 726 interviews of active, registered voters in Virginia including 238 on landline and 489 on cellphone.  The poll was conducted Sept. 4 through Sept. 30 and is the first of three surveys the Wason Center will conduct on the upcoming 2019 Virginia state legislative elections.

We have our work cut out for us to say the least.

Virginia Beach Democrat Senate Candidate Invokes May's Mass Shooting in Campaign Ad

The Virginia Mercury has the story here.

“I walked out of the bathroom and saw the gunman on the other end of the hallway,” she says in a political ad released at the end of September. “I saw a coworker in the middle, and he looked at me and he yelled, ‘Go.’ So I was lucky, but not everyone was.”

Missy Cotter Smasal, Democratic candidate for the 8th State Senate District, sponsored and released the ad. She’s one of the first candidates in Virginia Beach to explicitly mention in campaign materials the mass shooting that left 13 people dead, including the gunman, and injured four more.

Cotter Smasal is challenging Sen. Bill DeSteph, R-Virginia Beach, who has served in the General Assembly since 2014. Both are former naval officers.

The article goes on to give opposing views of the impact of this past May's shooting on the election.

Joshua Zingher, a political scientist at Old Dominion University, said other states that have experienced mass shootings haven’t had huge political upheaval afterward.

“The effects of mass shootings can be very short-lived. I don’t anticipate some anomaly in Virginia Beach either as a function of guns or gun reform or lack of gun reform or the mass shooting specifically,” he said.

Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University, said he thinks the shooting and gun policy will motivate a key voting bloc — white suburban women, who are “driving politics in Virginia Beach” and areas outside of Richmond. Those are also the areas where the Democratic Party is hanging its hopes to win a majority in the statehouse.

One thing is for sure, the gun ban lobby and their financial supporters from outside Virginia are pouring millions into the Commonwealth to try and influence the election and flip the assembly. And remember what we shared earlier this week regarding what former Governor Terry McAuliffe said at a fundraiser in Richmond last week.  If we don't want to become California or New Jersey, get out and work for the pro-gun candidate in your district and get as many gun owners to the polls in November as you can.

What is at Stake for Virginia Gun Owners

Last Wednesday, former Governor Terry McAuliffe made the Democrats' real agenda known. At a fundraiser for Democrat Senate Candidate Joe Morrissey, McAuliffe was quoted saying:

“We’re going to win this, and guess what. We're going to get gun restrictions overnight, we are going to make Virginia a new state.”

We've been saying this for the last two years!  Now, Terry McAuliffe, in Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke style, made it known exactly what is in store for Virginia gun owners if we lose the pro-rights majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly.  McAuliffe's words should be a rallying cry for  Virginia gun owners to use the next month to do all we can to support the legislators that support our rights.

Here are several House Districts that need your help.

House District 30 - Delegate Nick Freitas - To vote for Delegate Freitas, you will need to ask for a write-in ballot.  Through some snafu, his name was not included on the ballot and we need him in the House of Delegates.

House District 66 - Delegate Kirk Cox - House Speaker Kirk Cox's district was redrawn by the federal court and the U.S. Supreme Court found that the House of Delegates did not have standing to challenge a lower court's ruling that several districts had been racially gerrymandered.  As you will see in the link, the redrawn district leans Democratic.  The gun ban lobby has targeted Delegate Cox, comparing him to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for blocking their gun control agenda.  Delegate Cox needs your help.

House District 40 - Delegate Tim Hugo - Delegate Hugo is likely the most endangered member of the House of Delegates.  He is the only Republican member in the General Assembly from Northern Virginia (Fairfax).  Delegate Hugo has been a strong supporter of our right to keep and bear arms.  He needs gun owners to turn out strong in his district.

In addition to the three above, below are additional members that need your help to win on election day and protect our rights:

Del. Chris Jones, HD 76 (This is another district that was redrawn by the courts to favor Democrats)
Sen. Amanda Chase, SD 11
Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant, SD 12
Del. Glenn Davis, HD 84
Del. Chris Stolle, HD 83
Sen. Bill DeSteph, SD 8
Sen. Bryce Reeves, SD 17 (Senator Reeves is a VSSA Member)
Del. Roxann Robinson, HD 27
Del. Rob Bloxom, HD 100
Del. Barry Knight, HD 81
Del. David Yancey, HD 94
Sen. Glen Sturtevant, SD 10
Jen Kiggans, SD 7 (This is an open seat vacated when Senator Frank Wagner took a job in the Northam Administration

Guns Among Top Issues in This Year's Assembly Elections

Politico has a story mostly about how state Democrats are trying to replay their healthcare strategy that drove them to almost take control of the House of Delegates in 2017.  But further down the article you find this:

In Virginia, though, health care will compete for attention with other high-profile issues Democrats and outside groups will lean on heavily to drive turnout in an off-year election. That includes a push for stricter gun laws after 12 people were killed during an attack in Virginia Beach this May.

Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University, said guns and health care are the two biggest issues for voters in competitive districts Virginia Democrats are trying to flip in November.

I will sound like a broken record between now and November but if the General Assembly flips control this year, Virginia's gun laws will look like California or New Jersey's overnight.  If you haven't already RSVPd for this year's VSSA Annual Meeting, you will want to do so.  This will be your opportunity to hear from VSSA's lobbyist about what we are up against.

Brady Endorses Gun Ban Candidates in Virginia

The Brady Campaign has endorsed a list of candidates recently for the House of Delegates and the State Senate.

House of Delegates: Wendy Gooditis (House District 10), Sam Rasoul (House District 11), Chris Hurst (House District 12), Danica Roem (House District 13), Larry Barnett (House District 27), Joshua Cole (House District 28), Kathleen Murphy (House District 34), Eileen Filler-Corn (House District 41), Kathy Tran (House District 42), Alfonso Lopez (House District 49), Hala Ayala (House District 51), Marcus Simon (House District 53), Jeff Bourne (House District 71), Schuyler VanValkenburg (House District 72), Shelly Simonds (House District 94), and Phil Hernandez (House District 100)

State Senate: Mamie Locke (Senate District 2), Herb Jones (Senate District 3), Cheryl Turpin (Senate District 7), Missy Cotter Smasal (Senate District 8), Ghazala Hashmi (Senate District 10), Amanda Pohl (Senate District 11), Debra Rodman (Senate District 12), John Bell (Senate District 13), John Edwards (Senate District 21), Creigh Deeds (Senate District 25), Adam Ebbin (Senate District 30), Janet Howell (Senate District 32), Jennifer Boysko (Senate District 33), and Dave Marsden (Senate District 37)

You will note that two formerly pro-rights candidates, John Edwards and Creigh Deeds on that list. 

If you live in the above districts, please get involved in the campaign of the pro-gun candidate in those districts (in most cases that will be the GOP opponent of the candidates listed above).  You can find a list of Senate races by district here, and a list of House races by district here. 

Also, if you live in either House District 40 where Delegate Tim Hugo is in a tough race against Brady endorsed Dan Helmer, or House District 66 where Speaker of the House Kirk Cox is in a tough race against Brady endorsed Sheila Bynum-Coleman, please get involved Hugo's and Cox's campaigns.

Hat tip John Richardson.

Special Session is Here - Stack of Anti-gun Bills Filed

On the day before today's start of  Governor Northam's gun control special session a large number of bills dropped on the Legislative information system.  The GOP lived up to their promise to focus on criminals who use firearms in the commission of a crime as several bills were introduced to increase mandatory sentences.  And, unfortunately, another Republican, Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment introduced anti-gun legislation (two bills).  The list of bills and VSSA's position on the bills are below:

• HB 4001 Right to keep & bear arms; codifies opinion of Supreme Ct. of U.S. in D.C. v. Heller, etc.  VSSA Supports
• HB 4002 Concealed handguns; carrying with a permit by employees of any agency of the Commonwealth, etc. VSSA Supports
• HB 4003 Firearms; removal from persons posing substantial risk, penalties. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4004 Handguns; limitation on purchases, exceptions, penalty. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4005 Firearms, ammunition, etc.; control by localities by governing possession, etc., within locality. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4006 Firearms; allowing access to minors, penalty. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4007 Firearms, ammunition, etc.; control by localities in local government buildings. VSSA  Opposes
• HB 4008 Concealed handgun permits; demonstration of competence. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4009 Protective orders; possession of firearms, surrender or transfer of firearms, penalty. VSSA Opposes
• HB 4010 Stolen firearms; penalties. VSSA Supports
• HB 4011 Firearms; reporting those lost or stolen, civil penalty.  VSSA Opposes
• HB 4015 Firearm transfers; criminal history record information checks; penalty.  VSSA Opposes
• HB 4016 Use or display of firearm in committing felony; penalty.   VSSA Supports
• HB 4018 Use or display of firearm in committing felony; firearm silencer; penalty.  VSSA Neutral
• HB 4020 Purchase, possession, or transportation of firearms by prohibited persons; surrender or transfer of  VSSA Opposes
• HB 4021 Prohibiting sale, transport, etc., of assault firearms, certain firearm magazines, trigger activat  VSSA Opposes
• HB 4024 Purchase, possession, or transportation of firearm prohibited; person voluntarily admitted.  
• HB 4026 Violation of provisions of protective orders while armed  VSSA Neutral
• HB 4029 Firearm transfers; criminal history record information check; illegal alien; notification.  VSSA Supports
• HJ 4001 Gun Violence Awareness Day; designating as June 1, 2020, and each succeeding year thereafter. VSSA Opposses
• SB 4001 Firearms; control in chambers of local governing bodies.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4002 Handguns; limitation on purchases, exceptions, penalty. VSSA Opposes
• SB 4003 Protective order; violation, armed with firearm or other deadly weapon, mandatory min. sentence.  VSSA Neutral
• SB 4004 Firearms; brandishing, etc., at a law-enforcement officer, penalty.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4005 Firearms; concealment while committing certain felonies, penalty.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4006 Stolen firearms; penalties.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4007 Firearms; use or display while committing felony, penalty.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4008 Firearms, ammunition, etc.; control by localities by governing possession, etc., within locality. VSSA Opposes
• SB 4011 Volunteer school security officers; authorization by local school boards, etc. VSSA Supports
• SB 4012 Firearms; removal from persons posing substantial risk, penalties.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4013 Local government buildings; dangerous weapons, penalty.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4014 Denial of a concealed handgun permit; entry into Virginia Criminal Information Network.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4015 Public schools; firearm safety education program.  VSSA Supports
• SB 4016 Regulation of firearms by localities; workplace rules; limitation. VSSA Supports
• SB 4017 Firearms; allowing access to minors, penalty.   VSSA Opposes
• SB 4018 Protective orders; possession of firearms, surrender or transfer of firearms, penalty.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4019 Firearm transfers; criminal history record information checks; penalty.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4020 Concealed handgun permit; disqualifications; assault, assault and battery, sexual battery.  VSSA Opposes
• SB 4021 Reporting lost or stolen firearms; civil penalty.  VSSA Opposes  
• SB 4022 Discharging firearm; penalty.  VSSA Neutral
• SB 4023 Violation of protective order while armed with firearm or other deadly weapon; mandatory minimum.  VSSA Neutral
• SB 4024 Assault firearms, certain firearm magazines, trigger activators, & silencers; prohibiting sale, etc.  VSSA Opposes

Gun Owners Get Win after Tuesday's Special Election to Fill Vacant House of Delegates Seat

In 2017, Virginia Democrats won 15 seats in the House of Delegates, with Republicans narrowly maintaining a majority at 51-49, which preserved the pro-gun majority by a single seat. Over the summer, Delegate Greg Habeeb resigned to focus on his personal career, setting up a special election to fill the uncompleted term.  On Tuesday, pro-gun Republican Joe McNamara defeated Democrat Carter Turner in that and keeping that crucial pro-gun majority.  Yesterday, I had the opportunity to talk about this one bright spot in Tuesday's otherwise worrisome Virginia results. State Delegate Ben Cline won his congressional seat, so another special election will be held during the holiday season. It cannot be stated strongly enough how important it is that we begin preparing now for the off-year 2019 legislative races. Gov. Ralph Northam would be delighted to sign any gun control bill that came his way should that Second Amendment firewall fail and turn Virginia into New Jersey or California overnight.