Will 2014 Election Be Remembered as the Final Defeat for Gun Control Advocates?

That's what columnist Ken Braun suggested in his article yesterday at MLive:

Following the release of this week’s election results, many big issues will be credited or blamed for altering the balance of power in Congress and state capitols. But despite the political and financial capital spent to the contrary, one issue that won’t leave much of a mark will be gun control. History may record the aftermath of this election as the era when stricter gun control advocates finally gave up.

He goes on to detail in the article reasons to back-up his theory.  Things like the fact that when Gabby Giffords was making her rounds in nine states pushing gun control last month, not a single candidate appeared with her.  Braun also noted that even Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy was in a tight battle with a candidate who was promising to repeal the gun bans that Malloy signed into law.  The same with Governor John Higgenlooper in Colorado.  Both Malloy and Higgenlooper prevailed in very tight races but Braun notes that neither incumbent ran on protecting the laws they signed.  Braun spoke with Cam Edwards of NRANews.com yesterday and talked a little more in depth about his article and his theory.

I'm not quite convinced that gun control advocates have faced their final defeat, but I do think as a campaign issue, candidates have avoided it whenever possible for about 20 years.  That's why Bloomberg's groups shifted tactics to strategies like they employed with Initiative 594 in Washington state.  It is likely we are going to be facing ballot initiatives more often than candidates who run on gun control as an issue in future elections.

Update: Regarding ballot initiatives, Bloomberg thinks it's the wave of the future too.  Hat tip to VSSA Executive Director Lu Charette for the update.

The Message To Gun Owners from Election Night 2014

Much is being written about last night's huge victory for Republicans.  In Virginia, the big story was how close the U.S. Senate race ended up.  While Warner has not claimed out right victory and Gillespie has not conceded, Warner clings to a razor thin 13,000 vote margin out of over 2 million votes cast.  The disappointing thing to note is had everyone who cast a vote for Dave Brat in the 7th District, and Barbara Comstock in the 10th also voted for Ed Gillespie, Warner would be packing his senate office this morning.  In my home county of Chesterfield, Gillespie underperformed his ticket mates Brat and Forbes (Chesterfield is split between two congressional districts) by about 5500 votes - almost half his final deficit.  If you are voting for Brat, the candidate who defeated former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, it is hard to understand how that same person votes for Mark Warner, or doesn't vote in the Senate race at all. You have to believe those folks oppose President Obama's policies and anyone who has supported them.

Across the country, candidates who supported the rights of law-abiding gun owners won in places like Maryland where GOP candidate Larry Hogan will be the next governor, North Carolina where Thom Tillis defeated Senator Kay Hagan, and Iowa where Joni Ernst defeated Bruce Braley.  There are some exceptions however.  In Colorado, John Higgenlooper, the man who signed the ammunition magazine ban that caused Magpul to leave the state, looks like he survived a close race all the while Republican Cory Gardner was defeating Senator Mark Udall.

The troubling result is passage of Initiative 594 (I-594) in Washington State.  I wrote last month that what happens with I-594 will impact us in Virginia.  Supporters of I-594 say it simply requires so-called "universal" background checks on the sale of privately owned firearms.  But it would do so much more. And as Caleb notes over on Gun Nuts media, the strategy employed by its supporters should be a wake up call to pro-rights activists:

But allow me to return to the point. The reason why 594 passing is bad news for gun owners everywhere is because it validates Bloomberg’s strategy. This is a new kind of gun control game, they’re smarter than the Brady Campaign and they have functionally unlimited resources. Yes, they played it smart in Washington. They picked an issue that’s easy to misrepresent in universal background checks; they played that issue to a strong blue voter base, and then they spent a ton of money on marketing and GOTV. That’s textbook “Winning Ballot Questions 101″ and it’s really hard to fight against.

I would expect to see a lot more ballot question fights in the near future, and I’d expect them to be over things like background checks. It is by far the toughest fight for us, because defeating their argument requires low information blue voters to actually care about facts, and that right there is why we lost in WA. Gun rights had all the facts on their side, and they still lost.

Sure, gun control at the national level is dead for at least two years. But buckle up Sally, because at the state level things could be getting rodeo pretty quick.

Virginia is not an initiative state, but that doesn't mean we won't have to expend a considerable amount of effort on defeating legislative proposals pushing so-called "universal" background checks. That fight will be greatest in the State Senate where we have had to work hard to keep background check bills from getting out of committee even with a GOP majority.  Get ready because it's going to be a busy legislative session.

Update: John Lott asks the question, considering the initiative passed with just slightly less than 60% of the vote, with the gun ban lobby finally stop claiming that 90% support "universal" background checks?

Gerry Connelly Doubles Down in VA 11th

Gerry Connolly is the Democrat Congressman in Virginia's 11th Congressional District.  This race had not been on the radar until the last week because it has been a safe Democrat enclave (rated as a +10 D) since Republican Tom Davis retired from congress several years ago.  But last week my email inbox started exploding with email from people like former Governor and NRA Board member Jim Gilmore and others touting Republican Suzanne Scholte.  Then, I saw this post yesterday over on Guns and Curves.  It's an open letter from a Scholte supporter taking Connolly to task for his "War on Women" attacks:

The real irony here is that your Republican opponent is not only a woman but is an Award Winning Human Rights Activist. She even was awarded the President’s Volunteer Service Award this year from President Obama. Scholte has fought for human rights and women’s rights in the United States and abroad. She has been the President of the Defense Forum Foundation since 1988.

And he hasn't stopped there.  Connolly is a big gun ban supporter.  Because Scholte supports the rights of law abiding gun owners, he has gone on the attack on this issue too. The open letter also included this graphic:

Connolly is running the typical 2014 campaign talking about birth control and how his opponent wants to ban access to it.  He has done little for his district so he has nothing positive on which to run.  Will Connolly get swept up in what is looking more and more like a GOP wave?  Given the demographics of the district, it will be tough for Scholte to pull it out, but it appears Connelly thinks she might, so he is pulling out all to stops to scare voters that she is an extremist.

Gabby Giffords Struggles to Gain Traction for Gun Control in Mid-term Election

Breitbart has the story here.  It seems while the former congresswoman is doing her best to make her push for gun control a central issue in the mid-term elections, she is having trouble getting candidates in tight races to join her:

In part by design, but also in recognition of the country's political landscape, not a single candidate in this year's midterm elections for statewide or federal office appeared with Giffords as she made her way from Maine to Washington state over 10 days.

Giffords has focused her activity on nine states, including Washington which has an initiative on the ballot that would make the act of an instructor handing a firearm to a student a crime without a background check. All you need to know about just how uphill her challenge is, is this quote:

"If this happened in March or December or any other time, we'd have asked other politicians to join," said Marti Anderson, an Iowa state lawmaker who helped organize a Giffords event in Des Moines. "But it's risky 15 days before an election."

While gun control ranks near the bottom of concerns for most voters this election, there are a few exceptions.  Colorado and Connecticut, where major restrictions on the rights of gun owners were rammed through each legislature in response to the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, have pro-rights activists energized to defeat both governors.

Groups like the one Giffords heads, and the multiple organizations Bloomberg funds have gobs of money but they don't have what the pro-rights community have; grassroots.  Money is important but people vote.  We are less than a week out for the election.  Now is the time to double down on efforts to help those candidates who support us.

What Current Polls Can Tell Us About the Midterm Elections

Remember that polls are simply a snapshot in time but National Review's Jim Geraghty has shared the enterprising work of Sean Trende of UVA's Center for Politics that looks at the likelihood that a candidate with a certain percentage lead in the polls at this point in an election will go on to win.  Jim then looks at what Trende's chart tells us about the close races and the chances the GOP will send Harry Reid packing his office and moving to the minority leader's office in the Capitol.  First the good news:

Let’s start with the good news for Republicans.
In Arkansas, Tom Cotton is enjoying a 5.5 point lead. 86 percent chance of victory!

In Colorado, Cory Gardner has a 4 point lead. 91 percent chance of victory!

In Alaska, Dan Sullivan has a 4.3 point lead. 91 percent for him, too!

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell has a 4.4 percent lead.

In Iowa, Joni Ernst has a 2.5 point lead, right between 2 and 3. Oooh, a 70 to 77 percent chance of victory!

(In Louisiana, Bill Cassidy has a 4.8 percent lead in a head-to-head matchup, but that race is almost certain to go to a runoff. Put that one aside for now.)

In case you were wondering, in South Dakota, Mike Rounds has a 9.8 percent lead in the RealClearPolitics average, but it would be 3.5 if you only used polls conducted in October. So you can interpret his odds of victory as either 97 percent or 91 percent if you round up to 4.

Here’s the kind of intriguing news for Republicans: In Kansas, “independent” Greg Orman’s lead is eight-tenths of a percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average. Rounding that to one, we find on the above chart that Orman has… a 44 percent chance of victory. Yup, somehow having a one-point lead 13 days from Election Day is actually a bad sign. However, by 12 days, the chance of victory with a one point lead jumps up to 88 percent; by a few days later, it’s down to 68 percent.

Georgia Michelle Nunn’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is 0.4 percent. So she’s not even on the chart. Bump her up to one point for the sake of argument, and she’s in the same spot as Orman.

Then he looks at the not so good news:

In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan has a 1.6 point lead, which we’ll round up to 2 points. Bad news, Thom Tillis, that’s a 70 percent chance of victory for her!

In New Hampshire, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen also has a 1.6 point lead, which comes to a 70 percent chance of victory. Considering how steadily Scott Brown has closed these past weeks, you have to wonder if this is one of those 30 percent cases.

Every other Senate race has a 6 percentage point margin or higher.

This is a nice but not quite ideal scenario for Republicans. Assuming neither Georgia or Louisiana are resolved on Election Night, let’s assume Republicans lose the seat in Kansas and gain seats in Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alaska, Colorado and Iowa. That’s a net gain of six seats! But as great as that sounds, it would give Republicans 50 seats and Democrats 48. If Democrats win both runoffs, they could keep control of the chamber by having Vice President Biden break the ties. If Cassidy wins the December runoff, Georgia’s January runoff becomes moot to control of the Senate.

If you are not a political junkie, then it probably doesn't matter to you whether we will be following run off elections through Thanksgiving and Christmas.  But it matters which party controls congress.  We know what Harry Reid has done to gun owners.  By changing the rules of the Senate, he has allowed Obama to pack the federal courts with anti-rights judges.  It is in the best interest of gun owners that Harry Reid and his band of cohorts are sent into the minority, thus making it harder for Obama to appoint more anti-rights justices to the courts.  And the only way to do that is if all gun owners in states with U.S. Senate races turn out and vote for the candidates who support our rights.

This Hill Article Says it All

Virginia's U.S. Senate race is considered a long shot to send Mark Warner back to the private sector.  But the real prize in 2014 has always been seeing the GOP sending Obama's gun ban supporting Harry Reid packing his majority leader office to the minority.  While many pundits point to signs that the prize is within reach, this article in The Hill should energize gun owners and other voters wanting to turn back many of Obama's unpopular polices to work that much harder until the votes are cast.  The article specifically talks about the Colorado U.S. Senate race but could be about any of the races that the GOP are close to winning.  It's never over until it's over and a good number of election laws that allow voting by mail and to register right up to election day give our opponents the opportunity turn out their voters.

Every registered voter received a ballot in the mail last week, giving both Republicans and Democrats the opportunity to follow turnout in real time and pester holdouts. Coloradans can also register to vote through Election Day, allowing for the possibility that both parties could increase turnout.

Democrats boast that their ground game is better than ever.

So, whether you live in Virginia where the challenger has a hard road ahead in the final two weeks, or Colorado, North Carolina, South Dakota or Kansas, now is the time to get out and do everything you can to see your candidate win, and see Harry Reid lose his job as Obama's top Lieutenant in the U.S. Senate.  You can find an NRA Campaign Field Rep or Election Volunteer Coordinator in your area and volunteer to help by clicking here.

This May Explain Warner's Move to Negative Ads

If you watch TV, you've probably seen an uptick in political ads for the Virginia U.S. Senate race and you have noticed that Warner has gone decidedly negative.  There is a good reason for this shift.  Bearing Drift has done an in-depth look at the just released CNU polls that shows a 12-point lead for Warner, but also shows that he has a ceiling of support:

But there may be a signal in there somewhere: Warner’s vote has a ceiling. In early September, CNU showed Warner at 53 percent. Roanoke College had Warner at 46 percent in late September. The next day, Quinnipiac has Warner at 48 percent (and at 50 in a head-to-head with Gillespie). Now CNU shows Warner at 51.

Warner was supposed to cruise to victory in November.  And, while he still has a lead of between 9 and twelve points depending on which poll you choose, the final total will likely be much closer.  As Bearing Drift pointed out in the above linked post, a lot of things have to go Gillespie's way for him to pull off an upset.  But, the fact that Warner has had to pull out things like "Enron Lobbyist" and other misleading statements in his ads says that Warner knows he is in a fight.

Warner must have thought voting with Obama 97% of the time, for Obamacare after saying he would not support any proposal that made people give up their current insurance, and vote to criminalize private firearm sales and transfers among life-long friends and family members would not come back to bite him.  While he has maintained a lead, he is having to work harder to keep his seat.

Finally, Warner worked hard to get the gun and sportsman vote in his 2001 race for Governor.  He similarly worked for that vote in his first U.S. Senate race.  Neither issue is mentioned on his current campaign web site.  The Mark Warner of 2014 is not the Warner of 2001.  How self identified conservatives can vote for this guy, as the CNU poll indicates, is a mystery.

PolitiFact Mostly Confirms NRA Claims About Veterans' Gun Rights Against Mark Warner

NRA mailings and flyers targeting Virginia incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Warner charge that Warner "has supported restrictions on veterans’ second amendment rights."



PolitiFact took a look at the claim and determined:

As proof, it cites the senator’s 2013 vote against an amendment that would have ended a VA policy of submitting the names of veterans it deems mentally unstable to the FBI for inclusion on a national list of people barred from buying guns. People who didn’t serve in the military, by contrast, can only be declared mentally unfit to buy a gun by a judge. 

So there’s a basis for the NRA’s claim: Warner voted against abolishing a restriction on buying guns that only affects veterans.

PolitiFact notes that Warner did support an amendment that would open an appeals process but that means veterans would still have their rights taken away and only get them restored after appealing while non-veterans have a judicial process BEFORE having their rights taken away.

PolitiFact's final assessment?

The NRA’s statement is accurate but needs additional information. We rate it Mostly True.

No one should have their rights taken away by a faceless bureaucrat and without due process.  Vote Freedom First: Vote Ed Gillespie.  Ed needs your help now! Click here to volunteer.

NRA Launches Next Barrage Against Bloomberg

The Hill reports this morning that the NRA has launched a $2 Million ad buy featuring a survivor of a violent criminal attack telling Bloomberg "you do not have the right to tell me how to defend myself."

This add is in addition to the one released in August that had a heavy emphasis on Colorado complete with the disparaging comments Bloomberg made about one of the higher populated areas of the state.  NRA has taken very seriously Bloomberg's promise to spend $50 million to attack our rights.  The latest ad puts a personal face on Bloomberg's proposed policies.

Will NRA Strategy Hanging Bloomberg Around Necks of Democrats Work?

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports that the NRA will begin running an ad in Georgia today tying gun ban advocate and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn. Bloomberg has contributed the maximum amount an individual can contribute ($2500) to Michelle Nunn.
The Wire then compares this to the strategy Democrats have employed trying to tie the Koch Brothers, who have been major donors to conservative candidates and causes, to the NRA ads tying Bloomberg to various candidates.

Yet these types of strategies take a lot of time and money to bear fruit. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in April found that only 21% of Americans had a negative view of the Koch brothers – half didn’t know who they were and a fifth had a neutral opinion.

I would argue however that the NRA is not targeting the entire electorate in Georgia, but are targeting gun owners.  And gun owners know who Michael Bloomberg is and what he means for our rights.

The article also notes that Nunn has not made gun control a central part of her campaign, but, just like Virginia's Mark Warner, who is running for re-election this year, Nunn favors so-called "expanded" background checks.  Besides criminalizing the private transfer of firearms between lifelong friends and family members, the Manchin/Schumer/Toomey amendment (which Nunn's campaign used as a defense against the NRA ad) would have created a number of gun control measures.

I might agree with the Journal that in normal cases, trying to make a boogie man the reason not to vote for a candidate takes a lot of work.  But in the case of the NRA ads, they have a targeted audience to which they are playing and to that audience, Michael Bloomberg is like the plague and should help turn out votes for the pro-rights candidate.

8th District Democrat Don Beyer Campaigns for Gun Control

The Washington Post has the report here.  This should come as no surprise to anyone.  When Beyer ran for Governor against Jim Gilmore in 1997, Beyer supported gun control.  He is running in the overwhelmingly Democrat 8th District so he probably figures openly campaigning to restrict our rights won't hurt him.  Gun control is the first of the "Eight Ideas" that he will take to the voters before election day.  Unfortunately, gun owners don't have a lot of choice in the 8th District as the GOP candidate also supports gun control:

Beyer is not alone in his belief that gun laws need tightening; his Republican opponent, Micah Edmond, says the U.S. should ensure that “crazy people shouldn’t have guns” and emphasizes the need for rigorous background checks.

Beyer specifically wants to close the so-called “gun show loophole,”  ban standard-capacity ammunition magazines, and supports the latest scheme of the gun ban lobby - making it easier for family members or law enforcement officials to petition for so-called "gun restraining orders" on people they believe could be dangerous to themselves or others.

The other seven ideas Beyer has include employment and immigration.  Interesting how Beyer puts gun control as his number one concern when the economy and jobs tend to be at the top of voter's concerns.  In a June Rasmussen poll, gun control ranked 10th among the concerns of voters.

A Lot of Shooting In 2014 Campaign Ads

NPR's All Things Considered had this story yesterday afternoon talking about how 2014 candidates have picked up on what Joe Manchin did when he first ran for the U.S. Senate - use a firearm to make his campaign point:

Each year trends emerge. This year, lots of spots are hitting the air featuring candidates with firearms shooting at things: TVs, drones, thick copies of the Affordable Care Act.

NPR shared several spots, most from Republicans, but there was one Washington State Democrat ad included:

Not just any candidate can do this however.  Travis Ridout, a Washington State University political science professor told NPR:

Manchin was well-known and the imagery reinforced who he was. But it's not so simple for political newcomers to use the sound and symbolism of firearms to take a shot and get noticed.

I wonder if that Washington Democrat's GOP opponent has asked what he thinks of Intitiatve 594?

Meet the Real Michael Bloomberg

The Washington Post Politics Blog reports that the NRA has launched a new ad campaign targeting Michael Bloomberg.  The first ad takes derogatory comments Bloomberg made about one of the largest counties in Colorado to show the elitist attitude the former mayor has about areas outside of New York City.

Also part of the campaign is a new web site - MeetBloomberg.com.

The Post notes that USA Today was the first to report the campaign.  From USA Today:

"Michael Bloomberg has declared war on the NRA and our 5 million members," Chris Cox, executive director of the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action, said in an e-mail. "We will not sit back and let him use his billions of dollars to impose his radical anti-freedom agenda on the American people."

The NRA plans to spend $500,000 on the first round of ads which will run in several states including Colorado.

NRA-ILA Campaign Field Rep Now in VA 10th District

Are you currently doing everything you can to help elect pro-gun candidates in 2014? Are you ready to Stand and Fight against the Obama/Bloomberg multi-million dollar anti-gun machine?  NRA-ILA currently has an active Campaign Field Representative in the 10th Congressional District where Pro-rights candidate Barbara Comstock is running to success retiring Congressman Frank Wolf and her name is Tiffany Bambeck.  If you live in the 10th District, Tiffany needs your help!  With less than 90 days left until the November 4^th general election, and the increasing importance of early and absentee voting, we don’t have time to waste.

First , please take a minute to visit www.NRAILAFrontLines.com.  This website has been set up so that NRA FrontLines™ supporters can find upcoming events, volunteer for specific activities, register to vote and recruit additional pro-gun volunteers to join our efforts.

Second, tell your family, friends and fellow firearm owners and help us grow the NRA-ILA FrontLines™ volunteer network as gun owners unite to elect pro-gun candidates who will continue to fight against the anti-gun agenda of Obama and Bloomberg. 

The activism of VSSA and NRA members and volunteers is our greatest asset and there has never been a more critical time to get involved.  There are few things more rewarding than watching the election returns knowing you made a real difference in preserving our freedom for future generations.

It's important that we keep our pro-rights majority in Congress.  Please click the Fronlines link above, sign-up and volunteer today.

NRA Kicks Off 2014 Campaign Season

The NRA has kicked off the start of the 2014 campaign season with this web site and video:

Protect your rights! Make sure all of your gun owning family and friends are registered to vote.

Cantor Loses Primary , Democrats Find 11th Hour Candidate for 7th District

Back when everyone thought Eric Cantor was a shoe-in for re-election, the 7th District Democrats decided they would not run a sacrificial lamb.  But it appears the 7th District Democratic Committee had second thoughts and nominated John "Jack" Trammell two days before the GOP primary.  Trammell is an associate professor at Randolph-Macon College, the same place that employs Brat.

Reading news clips and listening to talk radio this morning, much is being made of the "historic" nature of Cantor's loss.  There is also a lot of talk about Brat's Tea Party connections and how the "Tea Party Roared."  It's likely less due to the Tea Party and more along the lines of what an unnamed "GOP strategist" told the Roanoke Times last night during a conversation at the Cantor election party wake and reported by the Times this morning:

“This is what happens when you don’t tend the weeds in your backyard,” the strategist said. He went on to question Cantor’s decision to go on television — a strategy that may have raised Brat’s profile and let more voters know about the race. “Six weeks ago, Brat was an unknown. The question will be: Did the campaign overreact?”

Something happened between 2012 and 2014.  Jim Geraghty noted on the Campaign Spot that in 2012, Cantor took 79of the vote in his primary.  He also notes turnout wasn't the issue.  It was higher than 2012:

Cantor and his allies can’t blame low turnout for this one. My old colleague Derek Willis noted that the 2012 primary turnout was surpassed with only 71 percent of the precincts reporting. “People who ran David Brat’s turnout operation are gonna be getting some phone calls, methinks.” 

A perfect storm appears to have been created in the last year that led to last night's surprise upset.  In full disclosure, I have known Cantor for years.  I also personally know many of the former Cantor supporters who were supporting Brat and, who in my opinion, made this more personal toward some of the players than it should have been.  And, I know Cantor's consultant.  Cantor became the target for the anger caused by events that began in the run-up to this year's GOP mass meetings and state nominating convention, orchestrated by Cantor's consultant, and likely with the approval of Cantor.  They were tactics that were regularly used in the 80's when I was cutting my teeth in politics.  They served only to tick off people and had for the most part been tossed in the waste can, until this year.  Bearing Drift does a good job of explaining those events in this post.  In short it can be summed up like this:

Don’t piss off the grassroots.

John Fund confirmed this when he wrote on National Review Online:

Primaries are often criticized for low voter turnout. But they are also expressions of the grassroots sentiments of political parties. The lesson tonight is that establishment candidates ignore their most ardent voters at their peril. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it tonight: “The GOP establishment’s problem isn’t with the Tea Party. It’s with Republican voters.”

So, Brat is to be congratulated on his win.  He energized grassroots and it paid dividends.  But now he has to figure out how to raise money for a general election because you can bet the Democrats would love to try and make this a race.  The district is drawn to favor the GOP, but if you can't raise money to get your message out, that advantage may evaporate.

Has the Virginia GOP Learned Its Lesson

According to the Roanoke Times, we will know some time this Saturday afternoon.  The Virginia GOP will hold its U.S. Senate Nominating convention in Roanoke on Saturday and choose between four candidates for the chance to take on incumbent Mark Warner.  The four candidates are former RNC and Virginia GOP Chairman Ed Gillespie, Tony DeTora, a congressional policy adviser from Stafford County; Shak Hill, a U.S. Air Force veteran from Centreville; and Chuck Moss, a businessman from Prince William County.   

Last year's convention for the three state wide offices was a disaster.  The nomination for Governor was unopposed and most people came in committed to one or the other AG candidates.  But for the Lt. Governor nomination, there were five candidates and most delegates were uncommitted, which created the perfect storm for the eventual winner, E.W. Jackson, who made a real stem winding speech and led on every ballot.  In the end, his 20 point loss in the general election likely helped pull down State Senator Mark Obenshain in the AG's race.  Will the GOP go with the best candidate this year?  UVA Political Scientist Larry Sabato seems to think so: 

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, agreed that a Gillespie defeat in Roanoke is unlikely, given the stakes and following Republicans’ losses of all three statewide races in November.

“Political people are not dumb; their learning curve is not flat,” he said. “The GOP has a fair to good chance to take control of the Senate, and the party is trying to broaden the playing field.

I guess we will find out Saturday if Sabato is right.

Is Brat's Challenge to Eric Cantor More Symbolism than Substance?

That is what is inferred in the last paragraph of a recent Jeff Schapiro article in the Richmond Times Dispatch:

Brat acknowledges that defeating Cantor is the longest of long shots. Turning out 600 people for a district convention is one thing. Turning out 6,000 voters in a district-wide, open-to-all primary is quite another. Brat’s people do believe they can deeply wound Cantor, by holding his majority in the primary to the low double-digits. That would be fighting fire with fire.

For all the talk that "conservatives" think Cantor has strayed off the reservation, he still has an American Conservative Union score of 84 for 2013, which is the second highest score in the Virginia delegation.  Cantor also had an A+ rating from the NRA-PVF in 2012 and he has done nothing in the last two years that would likely change that (the NRA-PVF has not posted ratings for the June 10th Primary as of this writing).

But, if those who have an axe to grind with Cantor could "wound" him by holding his vote total below say, 60% (the % of the vote he usually wins in a general election) then they could claim a "moral" victory and hope to find a candidate in two years who could raise money and give Cantor a real run for his money.  The last time that happened was in 2000 when he won the nomination against an under-financed State Senator Steve Martin.  Unlike Brat however, Martin had worked the district hard for years expecting Cantor's predecessor, Thomas J. "Tom" Bliley would retire at some point.  That primary was the last time Cantor had a close race.

The anti-Cantor forces scored a small victory this past Saturday when the chairman of the 7th Congressional District Republican Committee was defeated for re-election.  It adds to the number of local committees taken over by the Tea Party since 2012.  Their next battle will likely be to change the nominating process from primary to nominating convention.  That task will be as difficult as taking out Cantor in a primary since state law gives the incumbent the say in how he will be re-nominated.

There is a lesson in this for gun owners.  No one expected the incumbent chairman to lose.  Bearing Drift noted after Saturday's 7th District Republican Convention that he lost because "status quo" conservatives were sitting on the sidelines.  The Tea Party folks were energized enough and showed up on a beautiful Saturday in Richmond to win a narrow victory.  Gun owners can never get complacent lest we meet the same fate.

Why Mark Warner is Still Popular

Yesterday was the annual Wakefield Shad Planking. For those not familiar with the event, The Wakefield Ruritan Club has hosted The Planking since 1949 on the wooded property of the Wakefield Sportsmen's club near Route 460 in Sussex County, Virginia, about an hour southeast of Richmond and an hour west of Virginia Beach. It is held on the third Wednesday in April each year.  Originally an all Democrat, all male, all white event, today it is overwhelmingly Republican and open to all interested in drinking free adult beverages and eating shad -- the oily, bony fish smoked for the occasion on wood planks over an open flame.  It's a place for candidates to see and be seen and for the politically active to renew old friendships and talk about the likely winners and losers of the year's coming campaign season. 

U.S. Senator Mark Warner was yesterday's featured speaker and Bearing Drift notes that even though Warner has become uncomfortable talking about his support for Obamacare, he at least should be given credit for doing something that the last two statewide Democrat candidates decided not to do, show up.  Warner hasn't abandoned what go him elected in 2001 - going to rural Virginia.

And Warner played his usual "bipartisan" self in his remarks to the assembled crowd:

“Today, we’re not Democrats or Republicans; we’re Virginians and Americans, first and foremost,” Warner said, thanking the Wakefield Ruritans for raising money for rescue squads, Little Leagues and scholarships.

“Of course, looking at this crowd, I realize I’m here as an endangered species, a Virginia Democrat,” he added, pausing a bit for the laughter to subside.

“Looking around the crowd, that’s kind of like Republican women here as well — not many of either one of us,” Warner said, smiling to a burst of energetic female screams meant to prove him wrong. “I knew I’d get ’em,” he said.

Shows why even with Ed Gillespie raising over $2 million over the last 75 days, why he has an uphill battle unseating Warner this year.

Roll Call Primaries 2014 Webinar Today

If you are interested in the hottest primaries for this year's congressional elections, Roll Call has something just for you.  Today at 2:PM EDT Roll Call Associate Politics Editor Kyle Trystad, Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report, Senior Editor David Hawkings and Editor-in-Chief Christina Bellantoni will hold a webinar with in-depth discussion of the House and Senate primaries that begin this spring. This webinar will focus on the top primaries, starting with Kentucky and Mississippi, and how these races influence legislating and what gets done on Capitol Hill.  They will also take questions from participants.  If you are interested in joining on the discussion, just click here to register.