Has the Virginia GOP Learned Its Lesson

According to the Roanoke Times, we will know some time this Saturday afternoon.  The Virginia GOP will hold its U.S. Senate Nominating convention in Roanoke on Saturday and choose between four candidates for the chance to take on incumbent Mark Warner.  The four candidates are former RNC and Virginia GOP Chairman Ed Gillespie, Tony DeTora, a congressional policy adviser from Stafford County; Shak Hill, a U.S. Air Force veteran from Centreville; and Chuck Moss, a businessman from Prince William County.   

Last year's convention for the three state wide offices was a disaster.  The nomination for Governor was unopposed and most people came in committed to one or the other AG candidates.  But for the Lt. Governor nomination, there were five candidates and most delegates were uncommitted, which created the perfect storm for the eventual winner, E.W. Jackson, who made a real stem winding speech and led on every ballot.  In the end, his 20 point loss in the general election likely helped pull down State Senator Mark Obenshain in the AG's race.  Will the GOP go with the best candidate this year?  UVA Political Scientist Larry Sabato seems to think so: 

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, agreed that a Gillespie defeat in Roanoke is unlikely, given the stakes and following Republicans’ losses of all three statewide races in November.

“Political people are not dumb; their learning curve is not flat,” he said. “The GOP has a fair to good chance to take control of the Senate, and the party is trying to broaden the playing field.

I guess we will find out Saturday if Sabato is right.

Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" Predicts GOP Holds House of Delegates

Due in large part to gerrymandered districts, the bulk of the GOP's House of Delegate's majority is safe next Tuesday.  There are 45 uncontested races and an additional 12 with incumbents only facing independent candidates or "third party" candidates some of which are candidates who have put no effort into the race.  Some of the contested races are in Northern Virginia and due to the fact the region has turned so reliably blue (or at least purple fading to blue), that is where the GOP could end up losing if they lose any seats.  The GOP also stands to pick up a Democrat held seat in Southwest that is being vacated by the retiring Delegate Joe Johnson.  This from Geoffrey Skelley over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.

To refresh, there is still no chance that Democrats will win a majority of the chamber’s 100 seats. Republicans presently hold a 68-32 edge (counting one independent caucusing with the GOP), giving them an impregnable advantage in the House. Even more helpful to Republicans is the fact that the only sure-fire pick-up in the House is going to be a Republican one in HD-4, an ancestrally Democratic district in southwest Virginia currently held by retiring Del. Joe Johnson (D). The GOP is the only party fielding a candidate there.

There are about a dozen seats in districts President Obama carried in 2012 that are currently held by Republican Delegates.

Courtesy Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

The race drawing the most attention is the Northern Virginia district currently held by Barbara Comstock.  In 2012, Obama narrowly carried this district.  Mayor Michael Bloomberg has dropped $100,000 into the Democrat's campaign, after being "badgered" by Kathleen Murphy to help her out.  And with all the talk about Bloomberg's money in the Governor's and AG's race, his real target is turning out the Democrat vote to help sway the close legislative races to his side. Democrats are also working hard to get turn out up to where it was in 2012, believing (probably accurately) that if they can get Blacks and young voters to show up in the off year (which typically is not the case) then they can win.  Bloomberg knows he can't change the overall make-up of the House of Delegates, but he understands incrementalism.  If he can win a handful of races, and also claim to be on the winning side in the Governor's race, he adds to the narrative that gun control is a winning issue if candidates will only run on it.