Imagine That, Wording of Poll Questions Affects Response

I've said it more than once that the reason the gun ban lobby can claim public support of upwards of 80% for so-called "universal" background checks is because the questions used in those polls don't fully explain what such a policy would mean to gun owners.  If for instance, a pollster said something like "if you had to run a background check on your uncle, cousin, girlfriend, or best friend before you could sell or give them a firearm, would you support univeral background checks?" it is very likely support would fall exponentially.  It appears this thinking is correct.  According to this article in Bloomberg's propaganda "news" outlet The Trace, how a question is asked will affect the response:

One of the authors of the Johns Hopkins poll thinks the explanation for why CNN found less confidence in expanded background checks lies right at the beginning of its question. The poll asked (emphasis ours):

“If gun control laws were changed so that more comprehensive background checks were put in place for all gun purchases, how likely do you think it is that they would prevent those with mental health problems from buying guns? Prevent convicted criminals from buying guns?”

Beth McGinty, a professor in the Johns Hopkins Department of Health Policy and Management and co-author of the poll released this summer, says that phrases like “gun control” and “gun rights” turn questions seemingly focused on specific laws into broader referenda. Such trigger words, she says, “may evoke fears about threats to Second Amendment rights and cause respondents’ political ideology, which is closely tied to opinions about firearm policy in the U.S., to be the primary factor influencing their response.” For this reason, McGinty and her colleagues seek to construct poll questions with neutral wording that keeps the focus on policies themselves.

Here’s how the Johns Hopkins team asked respondents if they supported background checks, among many other specific policies:

“Do you favor or oppose requiring a background check system for all gun sales to make sure a purchaser is not legally prohibited from having a gun?”

In the school’s 2014 anthology on gun policy and politics, some of McGinty’s colleagues wrote that polls using the words “gun control” provide poor gauges of attitudes towards specific gun policies, and instead “likely measure a constellation of attitudes about gun ownership generally and the role of government.” While the authors addressed polls that asked very broad questions about support for any and all gun laws — not just background checks — McGinty thinks a similar dynamic could be at play in the CNN poll.

Or, put another way, try and hide what the real goal of your policy is by avoiding "trigger" words so you can show more support for your proposals.

Meet the Real Michael Bloomberg

The Washington Post Politics Blog reports that the NRA has launched a new ad campaign targeting Michael Bloomberg.  The first ad takes derogatory comments Bloomberg made about one of the largest counties in Colorado to show the elitist attitude the former mayor has about areas outside of New York City.

Also part of the campaign is a new web site - MeetBloomberg.com.

The Post notes that USA Today was the first to report the campaign.  From USA Today:

"Michael Bloomberg has declared war on the NRA and our 5 million members," Chris Cox, executive director of the NRA's Institute for Legislative Action, said in an e-mail. "We will not sit back and let him use his billions of dollars to impose his radical anti-freedom agenda on the American people."

The NRA plans to spend $500,000 on the first round of ads which will run in several states including Colorado.

News21's"Investigative" Series on Gun Rights vs. Gun Control

An outfit called News21 has an "investigative" news series called Gun Wars: The Struggle Over Rights and Regulation in America.  The pieces were posted on the organization's web site over the weekend and are running on news web sites like NBCNews, Philly.com, and USA Today among other partners.  The project bills itself as "an investigative-reporting project involving top college students across the country" funded by Carnegie-Knight and is based at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University.

The articles explore a number of topics like what they call "a resurgence of the gun control movement," as well as articles on background checks and the mentally ill, "Stand Your Ground" laws, the increase in female gun owners, and others. 

I've found some things that don't appear to be completely accurate.  For instance, in the article on the pro-rights and anti-rights organizations, they seem to confuse total NRA income (membership dues which cover the operation of the organization including programs) with the political income for purposes of the chart on the web page.  The reason that the NRA has a budget of $256 million (their number) is because the NRA has 5 million members.  That money goes to running the various programs and the overhead of the organization.  That's not the political side of the house.  So, to compare the $16 million they say is raised by the gun ban lobby with the NRA member dues is comparing apples to oranges.

Another thing I don't think is completely accurate is in the article on armed teachers.  In that article the author states:

In 28 states, adults who legally own guns will be allowed to carry them in public schools this fall, from kindergarten classrooms to high school hallways. Seven of those states specifically cite teachers and other school staff as being allowed to carry guns in their schools.

A News21 examination of open-records laws in those states found that teachers or staff who choose to carry a firearm into their classrooms are not required to tell principals, other teachers or parents. Only five of those states have completely open access to concealed-carry permit information through public records requests. Some state's laws seal off those records, and others are silent on the issue.

In states where it is legal, parents may have no idea their child's teacher carries a gun into the classroom every day.

I could be wrong but I believe they are confusing the statutes that don't allow public access to a state's list of concealed carry permit holders with requirements related to schools allowing teachers to carry on school property.

Look for a whole list of articles by the group to continue appearing on news web sites.

31% of Self Decribed Liberals Don't Want Family Member to Marry a Gun Owner

The Wall Street Journal's The Numbers Guy blog shares an interesting Pew Research Poll to see how politics affects marriage.

Pew notes:

Liberals also don’t want to see their family members marry gun owners, with 31% saying they’d be unhappy; only 1% of consistently conservatives would feel unhappy about a gun owner.

As you can see, religion seems to be another area that affects family relations.  Conservatives really don't want a family member to marry an Atheist.  About 27% of Liberals don't want family members to marry a Born Again Christian, but guns really seemed to get Liberals upset more than any other area.  Seems marrying a Republican gets slightly less dislike among liberals than if their family members marry a gun owner.

Crime Declines, People Still Think it's Worse

USA Today has the story here.  Last May, the LA Times had a similar story.  Not sure what's new in today's story.  The take away's are pretty much the same. From the USA story:

The rate of non-fatal violent gun crime victimization dropped 75% in the past 20 years; The gun homicide rate dropped 49% in the same period, according to numbers Pew researchers obtained from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"The public doesn't get its feelings out of crime statistics," said Alfred Blumstein, an urban systems professor at Heinz College at Carnegie Mellon University. "The public gets its feelings from particularly notorious events, and what the press talks about."

Which leads to the gun ban lobby trying to use this disconnect to their advantage:

"The public says 'I'm concerned, do something,' and the political system has to respond to that," he said.

Congressmen planning town-hall meetings

The Richmond Times-Dispatch provides information today on how Virginia's congressional delegation will interact with constituients during the August Recess.

Rep. Robert C. Scott, D-3rd, and Sen. Mark R. Warner, D-Va., plan to schedule meetings later this month but have not yet released the specifics.

Rep. Robert J. Wittman, R-1st, will hold meetings in Newport News on Aug. 31 and in Fredericksburg on Sept. 1. He also plans to conduct a telephone town hall.

Cantor traditionally does not hold town-hall meetings during the August break, but he conducts regular telephone town halls and plans some for the fall, a spokeswoman said.

Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., is on a two-week trip to Asia, and his office says it will decide how to proceed when he returns.

...Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th, is the first area member of Congress to brave the fiery health-care debate at a series of town-hall meetings. Through the end of August, he has 15 more "Tom in Your Town" meetings sprinkled throughout the district, which stretches from Charlottesville south to the North Carolina line.

Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-4th, has not scheduled a town-hall meeting yet, but he has had an extensive conversation with constituents ...through blogging and a survey on his Web site.

August is your chance to make your voice heard to your elected officials.

2009 Election

The end of the General Assembly in an election year also brings with it announcements of retirement from the legislature. This year was no different. So far five members of the House of Delegates have announced they will not run for another term. Two of those who have announced, Delegate Jeff Frederick (Prince William) and Delegate William Fralin (Roanoke), have been friends of gun owners and we will have to work hard to replace them with legislators that respect the Constitution and our rights. Another retiring delegate, Frank Hargrove (Hanover) was a supporter of our rights with the exception of repealing the "restaurant ban," which he voted against in 2003, last year, and this year. Gun owners in Hanover need to get involved in the nominating process to help make sure we have a strong advocate for all of our rights to replace Delegate Hargrove.


In the 25th House District, another friend of gun owners, Delegate Steve Landes (Weyers Cave), will face opposition for the first time in more than a decade. Landes deserves the support of gun owners in his district and I will have information in the near future on how to help him in his re-election bid.

General Assembly Special Elections

There are two special elections scheduled for January 6th (81st District) and January 13th (46th District) to fill vacancies in the Virginia House of Delegates. The 81st District (portions of the Cities of Chesapeakeand Virginia Beach) is due to the resignation of Republican Terrie Suit when she joined a local lobbying firm. The vacancy in the 46th District (portions of the County of Fairfax andthe City of Alexandria) is due to the resignation of Democrat Brian Moran so he can focus on his run for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Terri Suit was a reliable pro-gun vote with rare exceptions. Moran was reliably anti-gun until he decided to run for Governor and decided he should cast some pro-gun votes.

The candidates running are:
81st Democrat John LaCombe press@votelacombe.com
81st Republican Barry D. Knight barry@barrydknight.com
46th Democrat Charniele Herring voteherring@gmail.com
46th Republican Joe R. Murray joemurray7@gmail.com

If you are not sure if you live in either of these districts, click here, complete the form and you will be directed to information for your current representative. If either Terri Suit or Brian Moran are listed as your delegate, you need to vote on the appointed date.

It is important that we elect candidates that share our pro-rights views. VSSA will alert gun owners on which candidates will best protect the 2nd Amendment. Check here and sign up for our legislative email alerts to stay current on all of the important news related to your gun rights.

Election Post Mortem

There are still a few races that are undecided at this point but we do have a handle on what the impact of last night's results will have on gun rights. Clearly, I believe it will be hard to get significant pro-gun legislation enacted such as reform of BATFE or the DC bill that passed the House in this session but failed to move out of the Senate. It is not likely that a President Obama will sign such legislation.

According to Dave Kopel's analysis, gun owners lost approximately 15 friends in the House (less than the 26 that he had considered possible). In the Senate, when all the dust settles, we will likely see 4 less pro-gun senators but we will still have enough to sustain a filibuster if those Democrats that identify themselves as pro-gun, like Mark Warner, act as they have campaigned. We shall see if those like Warner will stand with gun owners if and when President Obama nominates justices for the Supreme Court that believe the Constitution changes with the whim of public opinion instead of those who believe that the Constitution means what it says.

My thought is that Barack Obama's left wing tendencies coupled with an over zealous Nancy Pelosi will cause him to try and strike while the iron is hot and push for a renewal of the ban on certain semi-automatic firearms and an end to gun owner privacy protected by the Tiahart Amendment. We shall see if his instincts for survival of his term and his party's majority in the House and Senate will cause him to be more cautious in the first two years than was Bill Clinton.

We have our work cut out for us.

Pro-Rights Congressman Virgil Goode Needs Our Help

Congressman Virgil Goode (5th District) is engaged in a tough re-election campaign and needs our help. Congressman Goode has been a longtime friend of Virginia gun owners. As a State Senator, he sponsored legislation that became Virginia's "shall issue" Concealed Handgun statute. If you live in the 5th Congressional District and can volunteer some time, contact Congressman Goode's campaign at:

Goode for Congress
235 South Main Street
Rocky Mount, VA 24151
Phone:(540) 483-9030

Today is the Big Day

This is an important election and every gun owner needs to get out and vote today. You can find the VSSA supported candidates in contested races in our post from yesterday.

VSSA Supported Candidates

Tomorrow is election day and your vote is very important if we are to maintain our pro-gun majorities in the House of Delegates and the State Senate - but especially the State Senate as there is a 50/50 chance that chamber may change party control. If that happens, every important committee chairmanship will flip to anti-gun northern Virginia State Senators. This includes the Senate Courts of Justice - the committee that most all gun related legislation is assigned.

The following is a list of districts that have contested races. VSSA supports the candidate listed in these important contested races and we urge all gun owners to vote for these candidates if you live in one of the House of Delegates or State Senate Districts listed below.

State Senate Contested Races
District 1 - (R) TRICIA STALL
District 11 - (R) *STEPHEN MARTIN
District 13 - (R) *FREDERICK QUAYLE
District 15 - (R) *FRANK RUFF
District 17 - (D) *R. EDWARD HOUCK
District 19 - (R) ROBERT HURT
District 20 - (D) *W. ROSCOE REYNOLDS
District 22 - (R) RALPH SMITH
District 23 - (R) *STEPHEN D. NEWMAN
District 24 - (R) *EMMETT HANGER, JR.
District 26 - (R) *MARK OBENSHAIN
District 27 - (R) JILL HOLTZMAN VOGEL
District 29 - (R) ROBERT FITZSIMMONDS
District 33 - (R) PATRICIA PHILLIPS
District 37 - (R) *KEN CUCCINELLI
District 39 - (R) *JAMES K. O'BRIEN

House of Delegates Contested Races
District 1 - (R) *TERRY KILGORE
District 5 - (R) *BILL CARRICO
District 6 - (R) *ANNE CROCKETT-STARK
District 7 - (R) *DAVE NUTTER
District 8 - (R) *H. MORGAN GRIFFITH
District 9 - (R) CHARLES D. POINDEXTER
District 11 - (D) *ONZLEE WARE
District 13 - (R) *ROBERT MARSHALL
District 14 - (R) *DANNY MARSHALL
District 16 - (R) DONALD MERRICKS
District 19 - (I) *LACEY PUTNEY
District 21 - (R) *JOHN WELCH, III
District 26 - (R) *MATT LOHR
District 28 - (R) *WILLIAM J. HOWELL
District 31 - (R) *L. SCOTT LINGAMFELTER
District 34 - (R) DAVE HUNT
District 40 - (R) *TIMOTHY HUGO
District 52 - (R) *JEFF FREDERICK
District 56 - (R) *BILL JANIS
District 59 - (I) *WATKINS ABBITT
District 67 - (R) MARC CADIN
District 72 - (R) JAMES MASSIE
District 78 - (R) *JOHN COSGROVE
District 83 - (R) CHRIS STOLLE
District 87 - (R) HENRY GIFFIN
District 88 - (R) *MARK COLE
District 94 - (R) *GLENN ODER
District 96 - (R) BRENDA POGGE
(*indicates incumbent)

Please go to the polls and vote for the pro-gun candidate tomorrow. Turnout is projected to be extremely low and your vote will be more important than ever.

Bloomberg Comes to Virginia to Endorse Davis

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg comes to Fairfax today to endorse vehemently anti-gun self-described RINO (Republican in Name Only) Jeannemarie Devolites Davis. For those down state that are not familiar with Davis, she is the wife of 11th District Congressman Tom Davis. Congressman Davis just bowed out of the U.S. Senate race to succeed Senator John Warner. During the 2007 Session of the General Assembly, Devolites Davis introduced legislation to "close the gun show loophole" but the bill was defeated in the Senate Courts of Justice Committee. She has made gun control a centerpiece of her campaign.

A little background on the state senator; when she was first elected to the House of Delegates, she ran as a right of center Republican and supported the agenda of the conservative House Republican Caucus. Much has changed however since she was elected to the State Senate. For one, her district has voted for Democrats in the last three statewide elections. Rather than make her case as to why a Republican position on issues important to the district would be better than those proposed by Democrats, she has positioned herself as "Democrat Lite." It has been my experience that when voters are given a choice between the real thing and a "knock off" they choose the real thing every time.

It has been proven more than once that people who support gun control do not base their vote on that issue alone. However, it has been demonstrated that a lot of pro-gun voters do base their vote for or against a candidate solely on the gun issue.

Gun owners in the district have a hard choice in a year that conventional wisdom says it is 50/50 that the Senate may flip party control. They have to choose between a Democratic candidate that received a "C" rating from the NRA but if elected would likely flip the State Senate to anti-gun leadership, or an "F" rated candidate that will continue to push gun control but keep the key leadership positions like chairmanship of Courts (the committee where most all gun bills are assigned) in pro-gun hands and thus neutralizing Davis' anti-gun positions.

It should be noted that Devolites Davis was one of only 10 senators (and the only Republican) that voted against HB 2653 - Delegate Scott Lingamfelter's Illegal Conveyance of Firearms bill that put an end to Bloomberg's questionable sting operations against Virginia Gun Owners.

You can read the NY Times coverage of Bloomberg's endorsement here.

Senate District 13 and Guns

The Pilot Online web site has a video voter guide featuring several races in the Tidewater area. One of the races pits longtime state senator Fred Quayle and City Councilman Steve Heretick. The issue of guns is one of the questions answered by the two candidates. Senator Quayle takes the opportunity to detail how the problem that led to the Virginia Tech shooting was not weak Virginia gun laws but instead a breakdown of the court and mental health system. Heretick took the opportunity to read Brady Campaign talking points and says he will introduce a bill to close the non-existent "gun show loophole." VSSA believes Quayle deserves re-election.

You can see the video of the Quayle race here. Click the "enter" button then click the "District 13" tab at the top of the video viewer.

UPDATE:

The NRA Political Victory Fund (PVF) has downgraded Heretick's rating from "A" to "C" based on the fact that what he said in the video referenced above is different that what he said on his questionaire.

Opponent Likely to Air Ads Hitting Cuccinelli for Supporting the 2nd Amendment

This just in from hte Cuccinelli campaign:

"...Put on your helmets. Our opponent has been funded from unidentified sources to buy a whopping $200,000 worth of broadcast television advertising starting today through Monday, November 5th. As they say – Yikes.

"We expect them to start running ads on the 2nd amendment issue later this morning.

"One thing is clear, we need to be prepared to get out our positive message in response. The problem is, we’re at the end of our moola here at the end of the campaign.

"We do not have $200,000 (I know you’re surprised), and we already sent out our last mailing requesting donations. So, please, help us gather as much money as we can to fight back with our own positive, conservative message. Please donate today by clicking here! We’re in the final sprint, and they’re dropping ‘the big one’ on our head on broadcast T.V. No one had ever gone on broadcast television in NoVa for a state senate race until this year. Now we get to be part of the fun.

"Please help us respond by donating today.

"We’re Still Working!We have always survived based on support from a committed base of volunteers. Won’t you please help us? Now is crunch time! If you’re willing to help, please give us a call at 703-293-9001 or email Mike@Cuccinelli.com. Please don’t delay! We are working EVERY DAY!

"We still need more volunteers. We have a lot of work to do in this must-win race, and we still need more people involved to help us get over the top. Can you adjust your schedule for 6 days to carve out time to help us in this critical race? Today? This weekend? Will you take election day off (or even just part of it)?

"Retired folks, can you make phone calls from home or at an office where we have a phone bank running? If so, please call us at 703-293-9001 or email Mike@Cuccinelli.com. We really do need your help."

If you can, please help this pro-gun candidate with a donation or by volunteering in this last week of the campaign.

Governor Kaine Sets Date for Special Election

Governor Tim Kaine has scheduled a special election for December 11th to fill the U.S. House seat left vacant by the death of Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis.

Congresswoman Davis was a strong proponent for 2nd Amendment rights and she was a regular attendee at the Fredericksburg Friends of NRA banquet.

At least a half-dozen Republicans, including Davis' widower, Chuck Davis, have either announced plans to run for the office or interest in a possible run.

Republican Davis died October 6th after a two-year battle with breast cancer at the age of 57. She had represented the 1st District seat that runs from Prince William county to Newport News since 2000.

VSSA Endorsed Jeff Frederick Needs Your Help

There are just 19 days left before election day and 52nd District Delegate Jeff Frederick needs your support more then ever right now. His opponent has decided to put aside any ideas he may have and instead run a purely negative campaign. He's not letting the facts get in the way of his attacks. While Jeff is focusing on the issues that matter most to the voters of the 52nd district, Jeff's opponent is resorting to out-right lies. Jeff is endorsed by VSSA for his spotless legislative record on the Second Amendment and I hope you’ll be able to get involved and help us to victory on November 6th. If you live in the 52nd House District, you can contact the campaign by calling (703) 490-8405 or you can sign up to volunteer on his web site.

State Democratic Party Hits Cuccinelli on Gun Rights

I was chastised a while back by a reader who identified himself as a Democrat for using the term "Democrat" instead of Democratic in a prior post. He went on to detail how the way I phrased the use of the term was similar to what had been done in some "Republican talking points" several years ago. The reader said that some gun owning Democrats are turned off by the NRA because it is perceived to be an extension of the Republican Party and that my post may cause the same feelings to be directed toward VSSA by Virginia gun owning Democrats. I explained that no slight was intended, that VSSA is a non-partisan group, and has endorsed and worked closely with pro-gun Democratic legislators in the General Assembly.

However, there is a reason why gun groups tend to lean toward one party over the other when it comes to supporting candidates. Whether it is the recent Gallup Poll that shows Democrats favor more gun control laws than do Independents and Republicans (albeit at lower levels now than in 2000 - more on that in a later post) or stunts like the one the Democratic Party of Virginia just pulled in trying to unseat Senator Ken Cuccinelli.

Several of VSSA's Board members and a good number of VSSA members live in Senator Cuccinelli's district. Senator Cuccinelli has been an unapologetic supporter of the Second Amendment and he is a member of the Arlington -Fairfax IWLA range. So you can imagine their reaction to a mailer that recently hit mailboxes in the district that was paid for by the Virginia Democratic Party.

The mailer in question has a photo of a window pane with what appears to be damage caused by a bullet hole. The mailer reads, "Criminals who can buy guns at gun shows have a message for Ken Cuccinelli." Then, below and to the right of the hole in the glass, there is the statement, "Thanks Ken."

On the reverse side is a photo background of what can be described as a less than mint condition automatic handgun, with Senator Cuccinelli's photo situated like it is attached to the gun, and in large type reads, "Ken Cuccinelli voted to allow criminals to buy guns at gun shows and is against nearly all common-sense gun laws."

The mailer then states that Senator Cuccinelli voted against "closing the gun show loophole" to "make it easier for criminals to buy guns."

The mailer does not mention the fact that six of his Democratic colleagues (Deeds, Edwards, Houck, Lucas, Puckett, Reynolds) voted with Senator Cuccinelli to defeat the bill.

And that's not all. The mailer goes on to distort other votes he cast in favor of the rights of gun owners without mentioning he was joined by two of his Democratic colleagues on the Senate Courts of Justice committee when those bills were killed in committee. It also does not mention that every pro-gun bill that passed in the last six years received the votes of at least five of the Democrat legislators mentioned above (Lucas being the exception as she usually votes anti-gun but had a brief moment of commonsense in the case of the gun show bill) and was signed into law by Democratic Governors.

I understand that political mailings often give distorted information or take many things out of context. But it seems to me a strange way to show your support for the right to keep and bear arms as stated in the state party platform.

VSSA continues to support our friends on the Democratic side of both the House and the Senate and we thank you for standing up for the rights of gun owners, despite what those sitting in Democratic Party HQ in Richmond may think of you.

For gun owners who would like to help Senator Cuccinelli in these final critical weeks of the campaign, you can call (703) 293-9001 or sign-up on his web site to be a volunteer.

VSSA Endorsements

In the coming days, VSSA will be announcing official endorsements for legislators that are engaged in tough election battles for re-election to the General Assembly. VSSA is a non-partisan organization and the Board has endorsed Democrats and Republicans for re-election. There are many friends of gun owners in the General Assembly but the Board opted to officially endorse those who have tough re-election campaigns. VSSA urges gun owners to review the NRA-PVF endorsements that will appear in your October NRA publications for a complete list of those that deserve gun owner support.

More on NRA's "Celebration of American Values"

A couple of articles are in today's news - The Washington Post and Bloomberg News Service - both focusing heavily on Giuliani and how he will play with the attendees. As you would expect from the drive-by media, both articles make it look like it is an event to showcase the Republican candidates for president. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) will also speak to the group by video as I mentioned yesterday and Congressman John Dingell and former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr (neither of which are running for president) will also address the crowd. Governor Richardson is the only Democratic candidate for President who has talked about supporting the Second Amendment and he has an unblemished record as Governor as well as a pro-gun voting record when he was in Congress. If Richardson had a snowball's chance of winning the Democratic nomination and he faced Giuliani I find it hard to believe that Richardson would not receive the nod on an endorsement (however I don't speak for the NRA and don't get to make those decisions - just MHO).

You can read the articles here and here.