Election Post Mortem

In what turned out to be a much closer election at the top of the ticket than anyone expected, Terry McAuliffe ended up with a 2.46 1.94% margin of victory.  Clearly, McAuliffe's victory was won in Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, where he won by more votes (66,507) than the final margin of victory (54,823 54,704).  McAuliffe's and Bloomberg's strategy of running up a large margin in this region to make the rest of the state irrelevant worked.

In the other competitive race, State Senator Mark Obenshain, currently leads State Senator Mark Herring by .01.03% or 319 476 votes, according the the State Board of Elections web site.  There will likely be a recount and we could see the same drawn out process that we witnessed in 2005 when Bob McDonnell bested Creigh Deeds by a little over 300 votes.

Most pundits expected Obenshain to win unless Cuccinelli was blown out.  He ran a better campaign than Herring, running mostly positive television ads featuring his 20 something daughter to get out in front of the expected "War On Women" attack.  Herring was considered to have run an inept campaign by some observers.  Then, Mike Bloomberg came in and dropped $1 million in ads on Herring's behalf.  Those adds did not just focus on gun control but also on other social issues in an attempt to motivate voters who may not be motivated by gun control.

Did Bloomberg's ads make a difference?  Well, in the House races, it appears to have been a wash.  According to VPAP, Bloomberg's PAC invested in two House races, and split, winning in the 93rd District where he contributed to Monty Mason, the winner, but lost in the 87th District where he contributed to the opponent of Delegate David Ramadan.  Ramadan Won.  It had also been reported that Bloomberg contributed $100,000 to the race of Kathleen Murphy in the 34th District but VPAP does not show any donations either from his PAC or from Bloomberg directly.  Murphy lost.  Over all, the GOP won 67 of the 100 House races, a very hefty pro-rights majority to block any gun control McAuliffe may push. The Democrats picked up two seats currently held by the GOP, both in Northern Virginia.  The GOP picked up a seat currently held by a retiring Democrat.

And, some Dems apparently think Bloomberg contributed to the closeness of the race.

Already heard from one nat'l Dem who quietly worries that Bloomberg's gun ads late were not helpful and added to closeness
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) November 6, 2013

Something else, the CNN Exit Poll asked those interviewed if there were any gun owners in the home and 47% responded yes. This indicates to me that a high number of gun owners voted yesterday. What should concern us however is that of those interviewed who indicated there was a gun owner in the home, 33% voted for Terry McAuliffe. We don't know if the person interviewed was the gun owner or the spouse/significant other of the gun owner.

So, what impact will yesterday's results have on the rights of gun owners in Virginia for the next four years?  Clearly, getting pro-rights legislation signed into law is going to be more difficult.  Getting it out of the Senate will depend on what happens with the special election to fill Northam's seat.  Should Obenshain end-up being declared the winner in the AG's race, there will also be a special election to fill that vacancy.  If the Democrats end up with the majority in the Senate, we may have to dedicate a significant amount of resources to defeat bad legislation in that house of the legislature.  We do still have a firewall with the House of Delegates but we don't want to see bad bills passed in the Senate.

This is not completely over yet, but we do have a sense of what we are facing in the next couple of years, and it's not going to be fun.

Hat tip to Sebastian for the Chuck Todd comment.

Defend Freedom, Defeat McAuliffe

NRA is now running this ad in Virginia:



Today, VSSA endorsed Ken Cuccinelli, E. W. Jackson, and Mark Obenshain earlier today.

This Should Concern All Gun Owners

Pundits are predicting that the Democrats are in good shape to pick up the first two races on this year's statewide ballot, leaving the third - the Attorney General's race, as the final piece. The Richmond Times Dispatch's political commentator Jeff Schapiro asks the question, if voters pull the lever for the first two candidates for the Democrats, what's to stop them from doing it for the third.

It's not like it hasn't happened before. We only have to go back twelve years to 2001 when Virginians voted for Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, but also elected Republican Jerry Kilgore Attorney General. That year, gun owners ended up with two of the three candidates elected (Warner and Kilgore) being pro-gun (Warner went on to sign numerous pro-gun bills, and never vetoing a good gun bill). This year, all three Democrats vocally favor new gun control laws and McAuliffe is so confident of victory that he is opening touting gun control on his web site and in last night's debate.

New York Post Calls Bloomberg Hero to Virginians, Poll Says Something Else

Two different news outlets described the same poll two different ways.  The New York Post described the findings of the just released Quinnipiac University like this:

Mayor Bloomberg’s bullish advocacy for stricter gun-control laws has won him considerable support — in Virginia.

But Newsmax.com described it like this:

A majority of Virginians say New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg went too far when he claimed that many of the guns used in city crimes are coming from Virginia. But, almost half of voters in a new poll said their state lawmakers should do more to address gun control issues.

VSSA had the opportunity to talk about the article and the 2013 Election on Cam Edwards of NRANews.

Obenshain's Momentum Continues to Build in AG Race

State Senator Mark Obenshain's campaign continues to build momentum in the first month after her found out who his Democratic opponent would be.  The Washington Post recently reported that Obenshain raised $480,000 in June, beating the record previously set by Cuccinelli in 2009 of nearly $292,000, and far outraising his competitor.  Democrat Mark Herring, a state senator from Loudoun who won a primary against former Assistant U.S. Attorney Justin Fairfax last month, reported raising $206,000.  Obenshain has approximately $300,000 more in his bank account than Herring.

Mark Obenshain for AG

Obenshain is the clear choice for gun owners in the AGs race.  Herring, like his Democratic ticketmates, is running hard on enacting gun control laws.  Senator Obenshain has been a true friend of gun owners throughout his career in the State Senate.

Please contact the Obenshain campaign to see how you can help him win in November.  Your rights depend on it.

Mark Herring Attacks Obenshain for Supporting 2nd Amendment

State Senator and Democratic Nominee for Attorney General Mark Herring is attacking State Senator and GOP AG Nominee Mark Obenshain for his support of the 2nd Amendment:



Yesterday, responding to the Supreme Court's decision in the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) case, a press release issued by the Herring campaign said:

As Attorney General, I will protect the civil rights of all Virginians and use the powers of the office to promote equality while we work to change Virginia’s current law which prohibits same-sex marriage.

While Herring was referring to Virginia's marriage amendment, it does beg the question, since he opposes most of Virginia's pro- 2nd Amendment laws just as he opposes Virginia's marriage amendment, does that mean he will use the "powers of the office" to violate these laws until he can change them too?

Hat tip to Bearing Drift.

Herring Attacks Obenshain for Pro-2nd Amendment Votes in First AG Debate

At their first debate since Senator Mark Herring won Tuesday's Democratic Primary,  Herring wasted no time in throwing out the ususal talking points of extremist to attack State Senator Mark Obenshain.  The Richmond Times Dispatch reports:

“On a lot of issues, the two of us could not be further apart,” Herring said, attacking his opponent’s past proposal to require women to report miscarriages to police. “Mark Obenshain stands for the prism of radical extremism.”


Herring said in recent weeks, "a lot could be heard about the fiery rhetoric” by E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, “But in the state Senate, Obenshain has put this ideology to work.”

Obenshain, taken aback by the attack resisted responding in kind:

“I want to make sure we have safe communities, that Virginia continues to be a job creation engine and one of the best places in the country for businesses to strive,” Obenshain said.


“I will fight to make sure that we fight gang violence in communities and schools, and fight human trafficking, which is the fastest growing criminal enterprise in the world,” he said.

Gun control was also discussed in the debate:

Herring called out Obenshain for his opposition to tougher gun control legislation. “We need to do what we can to reduce gun violence in Virginia. We got to get serious about it, the time for action is now,” Herring said, pushing for tougher background checks and the closing of the gun show loophole.


Obenshain countered that imposing further restrictions on law abiding citizens in Virginia is not the solution. “I wouldn’t be able to give my hunting rifle to my son without a background check,” he said.

There is a clear choice for gun owners in all three of this year's state wide races.

Virginia Primary Post Mortem

Some thoughts on yesterday's Democrat and Republican Primary.  Two longtime GOP Delegates, Beverly Sherwood, and Joe May, lost.  Some may call them upsets but when you dig a little deeper in to the numbers, there were several problems each of them faced and neither seemed to completely respond.

Let's start with Sherwood, who lost by 78 votes.  This is the first election in which she has run after redistricting.  She acquired new parts in Warren County and she lost those by a total of 94 votes.  Clearly, she should have done more to introduce herself to these new voters.  Bev was a good friend to Virginia's gun owners, chairing the Militia, Police, and Public Safety Committee for a number of years.  Her opponent, Mark Berg has indicated he opposes infringements on our 2nd Amendment Rights.  This should be a wash in terms of our support in  the General Assembly.

Joe May too had new territory in his district as a result of redistricting and he too lost those precincts (in Frederick County) badly.  Delegate May was considered more or a moderate than Delegate Sherwood.  The insurgent nature of their opposition was helped by the fact they both voted for the tax increases in the new transportation bill this last session.  Some will likely say it resulted in their defeat, but three other incumbents who were challenged and won, also voted for the transportation bill, so it it played a roll in May and Sherwood's defeat, it was likely just one of several factors.  May was so so on our issue earning a "C" rating from the NRA in the 2011.  IT is interesting to note that of the two incumbents that lost, Joe may received the second largest number of votes of the incumbents (2200), but lost by the largest margin (15 points).

Both Delegate Todd Gilbert and Bobby Orrock won, Gilbert with 92% of the vote and received the largest number of votes of any of the incumbents (3655).  He also voted against the transportation plan.   Orrock defeated Dustin Price by 13% and received 1366 votes.  Speaker of the House Bill Howell was also challenged but like Gilbert, handily defeated his opponent with 92% of the vote.  Both Orrock and Howell voted for the transportation bill.

The take away from these incumbents is to never be complacent.  Elected officials aways have to be doing outreach for new supporters and new blood in their organizations.  Gilbert clearly did that based on the high number of votes he received.  Orrock may want to make sure he is doing that outreach.  While he won handily, he got half the votes of about a two thirds fewer votes than Gilbert.

As for the Democrats, they had two state wide offices up for primary voters yesterday.  They decided to go with known candidates - State Senator Ralph Northam for Lt. Governor and State Senator Mark Herring for AG.  Northam beat back an Indian-American, Aneesh Chopra, who ran on a strong platform of gun control.  While Northam is no friend to gun owners (he has a "D" rating from the NRA), he was fending off charges of being a shill for the NRA.  When a candidate tells you that his "D" rated opponent is a shill for the NRA, you get the idea just how anti-rights the guy making the charge is.

In the AG's race, State Senator Mark Herring (also an NRA "D" rated candidate) soundly defeated former Assistant U.S. Attorney Justin Fairfax.  In choosing the known quantities,  state Democrats opted not to go with the "diverse" ticket many thought they would choose, and chose three white males for statewide office.  Not that that should make a difference but since Democrats are always pointing out how the GOP has no diversity on their national and Virginia statewide tickets, the irony is not lost on this writer.

Virginia gun owners have a clear choice this election.  Do we go with the candidates that have a solid record of supporting our rights (Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain) and their ticket mate who expresses strong support for our rights (E.W. Jackson) or do we opt for three candidates that for the first time in a number of years do not shy away from telling us just how they want to restrict our rights (McAuliffe, Northam, and Herring).

Now let's get to work and help the guys who stand with us.

Meet the Democrat Candidates for Statewide Office in 2013

Virginia Republicans nominated their candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General at this past weekend's state convention.  Two of the three (Ken Cuccinelli for Governor and Mark Obenshain for Attorney General) have solid voting records supporting the rights of Virginia gun owners.  The third, Rev. E.W. Jackson, who is running for Lt. Governor, received an "AQ" rating from the NRA prior to the convention and there is no reason to believe he will not stand by his commitment to Liberty.  So let's take a look at the Democrats who will be nominated by primary on June 11, 2013.

Terry McAuliffe, candidate for Governor, is unopposed and the June primary is a mere formality.  He is on record as wanting to reinstate the recently repealed handgun rationing law, banning modern sporting rifles, but tried the typical anti-rights trick of trying to show his pro-rights bona fides by purchasing a very expensive shotgun at Dick's Sporting Goods earlier this year.

The Lt. Governor Candidates are Aneesh Chopra - Former U.S. Chief Technology Officer under President Obama.  Chopra is very out front with what he wants to do to the rights of Virginia's gun owners if he is elected:

• Universal background checks. Closing the gun show loophole and keeping weapons out of the hands of dangerous people.
• Banning assault weapons and high capacity magazines. This will help keep military-style weapons off our streets.

The other candidate for Lt. Governor is State Senator Ralph Northam.  Northam earned a "D" rating from the NRA the last time he ran for re-election.  During his time in the Senate he has opposed repealing handgun rationing, and repealing the restaurant ban.

For Attorney General, we have Sen. Mark R. Herring, and Justin Fairfax a former Assistant United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia.  Fairfax was kind enough to provide a You Tube video of him talking about is gun ban agenda.

Here's a newsflash Mr. Fairfax, none of the things you mentioned in that video would have stopped the shootings you listed.

Then there is Senator Mark Herring.  He received a "D" rating from the NRA in 2011.  Besides voting against repealing handgun rationing and repeal of the restaurant ban, he also voted against keeping personal information of Concealed Handgun Permit holders private.

So, it is very clear which candidates for statewide office this year support your right to keep and bear arms, and it is not the Democrat candidates.