New Poll Shows Governor Race Close Going Into Final Days

The Washington Times reports this morning that a new Quinnipiac University Poll released today that McAuliffe's lead is only 4 percent - much closer than other recent polls. What should concern the Democrat is that most all polls show that the former Democratic fundraiser's support is very soft.  That probably explains why outside groups like Mayor Bloomberg's gun ban group is targeting Northern Virginia to try and get out the vote in the vote rich region.

More on that poll from the Washington Times:

“State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe’s heels as the race to be Virginia’s next governor enters the final week of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters.”

That's right - this race is going to be determined by turnout.  It's not over till the last vote is counted and Bloomberg may have awakened a sleeping giant by going over the top pushing McAuliffe to run on gun control in the final two weeks.

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Cuccinelli Down by 7 to McAuliffe

We get slightly better news from Quinnipiac this morning than we did from Rasmussen yesterday, which showed Cuccinelli trailing Terry "Party Animal" McAuliffe by 17 points.  The new Quinnipiac Poll shows the deficit at 7 points, more in line with most other polls in recent weeks, and a more achievable deficit to over come than 17:

While 47 percent of Virginia likely voters say the government shutdown hurt the Old Dominion "a great deal," it apparently has no impact on the governor's race, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli 46 - 39 percent, with 10 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

Note that in this poll, McAuliffe is still under 50%.  Now for the bad news, Democrats are more excited about voting for McAuliffe than Republicans are about voting for Cuccinelli:

In today's survey, McAuliffe leads 92 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 2 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 81 - 6 among Republicans, with 11 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 39 - 39 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.
 Women back the Democrat 49 - 35 percent, with 10 percent for Sarvis. Men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.
 Only 4 percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided and 7 percent say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind by Nov. 5.

Cuccinelli needs to find a way to tap into that 7 percent that say it is a "good chance" they will change their mind (hoping they aren't folks who are currently in his camp), and need to get those Sarvis voters that will most likely decide their vote is wasted for him and decide to choose between one of the two candidates that have a shot at actually being elected.  It's not impossible, but Cuccinelli has his work cut out for him.

Cuccinelli Faces Uphill Climb According to New Poll

The full results are here.  It appears that McAuliffe's constant onslaught of negative ads defining Cuccinelli and the AG's inability to fully respond has taken it's toll.

"Terry McAuliffe's strategy has been to paint Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli as too conservative to be Virginia's next governor. Today, almost half of Virginia voters agree, more than the 38 percent who say McAuliffe is too liberal," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Cuccinelli can take solace in the fact that in 2001 polls showed Democrat Mark Warner winning by as much as 17% and he ended up winning by just 5%.  But it is clear the AG has his work cut out for him and it is also clear that his campaign strategists, even though they have been told they need to make a mid-course correction, have ignored the message.

New York Post Calls Bloomberg Hero to Virginians, Poll Says Something Else

Two different news outlets described the same poll two different ways.  The New York Post described the findings of the just released Quinnipiac University like this:

Mayor Bloomberg’s bullish advocacy for stricter gun-control laws has won him considerable support — in Virginia.

But Newsmax.com described it like this:

A majority of Virginians say New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg went too far when he claimed that many of the guns used in city crimes are coming from Virginia. But, almost half of voters in a new poll said their state lawmakers should do more to address gun control issues.

VSSA had the opportunity to talk about the article and the 2013 Election on Cam Edwards of NRANews.