New York Times: False Alarms on National Crime Wave

A New York Times editorial last Friday poured cold water on the meme that the increase in murders in a handful of cities is an indication that the nation is in the midst of a national crime wave:

It is true that in many cities, murders in 2015 are on pace to surpass 2014 totals. In a new analysis of murder and crime rates in the country’s 30 largest cities, the Brennan Center for Justice projected that the average murder rate will be 11 percent higher this year than last. New York City, which had 333 murders in 2014, is predicted to have 357 murders by the end of 2015.

While that is troubling, it is not evidence that America has fallen back into a lawless pit of chaos and death. A more meaningful way of looking at data is comparing it with unmistakable longer-term trends: The rate of violent crime, including murder, has been going down for a quarter-century, and is at its lowest in decades. On average, it is half of what it was in 1990, and in some places even lower.

In New York City, for example, the number of murders reached 2,245 in 1990. Even in 2010, the city logged 536 murders, or 50 percent more than this year’s projected total. This long-term decline has been well reported, but increasingly, it is getting overlooked in the rush to identify a new crime wave.

As the Brennan Center analysis shows, overall violent crime — which includes not just murder, but robbery, larceny, assault and burglary — is projected to be 1.5 percent lower in 2015 than 2014. For understandable reasons, murders get the most attention, but they accounted for only 1.2 percent of all violent crime in 2014.

Two lessons emerge from this data. One is that when crime rates are so low, even small changes can appear large. The other is that small sample sizes based on arbitrary time frames are nearly always nonrepresentative.

A couple years ago, a poll found most of the public believed that crime was rising even though the crime rate was at lowss not seen in decades.  Murder always gets top billing in news reports so if there is even just a small increase, it appears worse than it really is.  It's nice to see the Times point to data that contradicts the usual meme in the media.

As Crime Rises, Criminal With 55 Counts Gets Probation in Milwaulkee

In cities like Washington DC, Chicago, New York, and others, violent crime has been on the rise this summer.  Recently in Milwaukee, one criminal was sentenced to probation at the time he was charged with over 50 felonies.  While sentencing the man who had 55 counts of illegal gun purchase and sale charges, U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Randa, said, “People kill people, guns don’t kill people.” The perp got one year of probation.  Most crime is committed by repeat offenders.  I wonder when this guy will become part of that statistic.

On Friday, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke shared his thoughts on the story with NRANews host Cam Edwards, saying that we don’t need more gun laws, we need to do a better job of enforcing the laws we have. 

Crime Continues to Decline in Virginia Despite Increased Firearms Sales

Continuing a trend that was noted late last year by a researcher at Virginia Commonwealth University, while the sale of fireams continues to be brisk and are at all time highs, the Richmond Times Dispatch reports both violent and property crimes fell about 3 percent in Virginia in 2012 compared to 2011.

State police say drug and narcotics offenses rose 9.4 percent and increased for the third straight year. Crimes such as burglaries, larcenies and motor vehicle thefts fell 3.3 percent, while murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assaults dropped by 3 percent. Specifically, there was a 13.2 percent decrease in robberies. Motor vehicle thefts and attempted thefts fell 8 percent.

So, it would appear that once again, the gun ban lobby is wrong.  The availability of firearms does not lead to a more dangerous society.