Election Night Tip Sheet

For those who will be watching tonight's returns wanting to know what the results mean for our rights, Dave Kopel of the Independence Institute spoke with NRANews' Cam Edwards recently on the key races to watch.



National Review Online's Jim Geraghty also did a "Quick List of 50 Key Counties" to watch tonight.   Here is what he said about important counties in Virginia:

VIRGINIA –
Prince William County (MAJOR BELLWETHER)
2004: Bush 53–47 2008: Obama 58-42
Obama 93,386 to McCain 67,589
Population: 402,002 Largest community: Dale City

Henrico County
Obama 56-44
Obama 86,262 to McCain 67,340

Loudoun County
Obama 54-46
Obama 74,607 to McCain 63,328

Winchester (independent city, not part of any county, small but useful)
Obama 52-47
Obama 5,268 to McCain 4,725

If Romney does well in the above localities, it could be a good night (at least in Virginia) for Mitt Romney.  Watch this blog tonight for updates on key races NRANews.com will also have wall-to-wall election coverage from 9:00PM until 3:00 AM.

Don't Forget: The President is Decided by 50 Mini-Elections

With all the talk of Romney's rise nationally to a four to five point lead in Rasmussen and Gallup polls of likely voters, it is good to remember that it's not the popular vote that elects the president but 50 mini-elections in the states.  With a majority of the states likely settled on one side or the other, we have about 12 states that are true toss-ups which will decide whether Obama or Mitt Romney will have been elected President when we wake up November 7th.

In this morning's Morning Jolt, National Review's Jim Geraghty shared this analysis from Ellisblog on what could happen based on the current state of the race.

The bottom line:

So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College.

This is just one man's assessment.  We can do our part in Virginia to make sure that Obama does not win this state again. Click here to find the nearest Victory Center and volunteer some time.  If you prefer, you can also volunteer to call NRA members and help turn them out to vote. Just contact the NRA-ILA Campaign Field Rep on this page and either Robert of Luke will tell you how to get involved.  If you are reading this and you do not live in Virginia, all of the NRA-ILA Field Rep contact information can be found on the link above.

Christian Science Monitor Comparison of Romney, Obama on Firearm Rights

On Sunday, The Christian Science Monitor had this comparison of Romney's and Obama's stands on firearm related issues.  While I did chuckle at the CSM's choice of Obama's photo (below),


saying the two candidates have similar stands, and pointing to the fact that the only gun related actions Obama has taken expanded gun owner rights (carrying in national parks and transporting in checked luggage on Amtrak trains as is allowed on airplanes), misses the mark. Both of those measures were attached to legislation Obama wanted more than he did not want the gun related amendments.

The CSM did not mention that the administration is collecting data on multiple sales of long guns along the southern border in violation of the law, nor did they mention that he has appointed two very anti-rights justices to the Supreme Court.

While Romney is not perfect, he has more than once spoken to the largest gathering of gun owners in the nation (NRA Celebration of American Values Forum in 2007 and the NRA Annual Meetings in 2008, 2009 and 2012).  Obama on the other hand repeatedly singles out modern sporting rifles as one of the types of firearms he would like to ban.  Just because he has not attempted to do anything in his first term legislatively, given his penchant for ruling by executive fiat of late, does anyone believe that an Obama unfettered by re-election would not resort to doing the same on the gun issue?

Romney Picks Gun Owner, Hunter, Paul Ryan as VP

Mitt Romney has chosen Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan brings a strong budgetary background to the ticket but also brings a strong record of support for the Second Amendment. Sportsmen and hunters will also relate to Ryan's love of hunting and fishing, something that is very popular in his native Wisconsin. Ryan regularly posts photos from his hunting trips on his Facebook page. Now is the time to go "All In" and work hard to Defend Freedom and Defeat Obama.

Presidential Campaign Money and Virginia

Anyone who has followed politics knows that 2008 was the first time in 44 years that Virginia went for the Democrat in the presidential campaign.  The Commonwealth swung back to the GOP in the 2009 statewide races and in 2010, the GOP won a majority of the congressional races, sending only three Democrats out of 11 to represent the congressional districts.  This year's U.S. Senate race is considered a tossup between former Senator George Allen and former Governor Tim Kaine.

So it is understandable that both presidential candidates are targeting Virginia in 2012 as one of a handful of swing states that will decide this year's presidential race.  The Richmond Times-Dispatch (RTD) reported this morning the contribution totals for both candidates in Virginia and where their money strengths are in various portions of the Commonwealth.

Obama topped Romney $483,000 to $332,000 that month, according to the nonpartisan tracker of money in Virginia politics. VPAP cited a list of itemized presidential donors provided by the nonprofit Center for Responsive Politics.

Through April 30, Romney still tops the president by a slight margin — $3.3 million to $3.2 million — among Virginians who have given at least $200, according to VPAP. The figures do not include totals from small donors.

According to the RTD, Romney leads in over $200 contributions in the Richmond area, Hampton Roads, Roanoke and Bristol, and Obama leads in Northern Virginia and in Charlottesville.  The RTD also noted that in the liberal enclave of Charlotesville (home of the University of Virginia), Obama has raised $286,638 to Romney's $85,500.

So, what does this mean for the election in November?  Campaign contributions do represent a certain level of support and the fact that Romney out raised Obama during a time when he had competition for the nomination does show some strength.  A better indication of that strength however is going to be the level of volunteers that staff phone banks, various local fairs, and other events where the general public will be inundated by campaign folks from now until November.

The NRA has launched the "All In" campaign for the 2012 election.  While gun owners may be wary of Mitt Romney, the fact is, either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney will be elected President in November.  We know where Obama stands and what type of Supreme Court nominees he will nominate over the next four years.  Gun owners need to be "All In" to defeat Barack Obama.

Is Governor McDonnell Raising Veep Profile?

The Roanoke Times Blue Ridge Caucus blog is reporting that Governor Bob McDonnell's Policital Action Committee (PAC) is running an ad touting his accomplishments of the last 21/2 years.

It can't be because he is preparing for re-election next year because Virginia governors cannot serve more than one term without sitting out four years before running again.  There had been talk early that McDonnell could be a possible running mate for presumed GOP nominee Mitt Romney.  And, McDonnell does fit this mold of smart, ambitious, clean-cut and a little awkward, used by The Hill in describing the type of VP that Romney may select.

Mitt Romney is Closing out the American Values Forum

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is closing out the Celebration of American Values Forum. Despite his past poor positions on the issue, he is being well received by the still large crowd.

Presidential Politics

Virginia has a primary this coming Tuesday. The GOP just lost one of its candidates. Speaking at the annual CPAC Conference, former Govenror Mitt Romney said this:

"I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.

"This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters... many of you right here in this room... have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country."

It was all but certain after "Super Duper Tuesday" but Romney's announcement makes it clear that McCain will be the standard bearer for the GOP this November.

Virginia Presidential Primary Thoughts

Note: This is not an endorsement for any particular candidate but information for voters to use in deciding for whom to vote on February 12th.The presidential race will come to Virginia one week after "Super Duper Tuesday" and just like in 2000, Virginia could play a significant role.

If Senator John McCain, who after winning in Florida, continues to role through the 21 states voting tomorrow, then next week may be all but academic. But, if Mitt Romney, who is running a close second in many of the states can keep McCain from picking up a majority of the delegates up for grabs, Virginia may have a say in the outcome.

Gun owners know that McCain has been a fair weather friend. While he has opposed the Clinton Gun Ban both times he had an opportunity to vote on it, in 2000 he supported ending gun shows as we know them by pushing for background checks on private sales at gun shows. The bills he supported did not just impose background checks but went as far as creating a gun owner registration list, registration of gun shows, and turn casual conversation at gun shows into gun sales. McCain's disdain for the First Amendment is even more egregious. The McCain/Feingold bill made it harder for groups like NRA to communicate with gun owners prior to an election. Clearly, if McCain was a conservative early in his political life, he strayed from that path in the last decade. When he spoke to the NRA's "Celebration of American Values" he highlighted those times that he has been with gun owners.

Former Governor Mitt Romney also has a spotted past when it comes to gun rights. Running for the U.S. Senate against Teddy Kennedy in 1994, Romney said he doesn’t line up with the NRA and favored waiting periods on gun sales. He also supported the Clinton Gun Ban in both 1994 and when he ran for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002. As a candidate for Governor, he said "We do have tough gun laws in Massachusetts; I support them. I won’t chip away at them; I believe they protect us and provide for our safety." Now that he is running for President he has joined the NRA and has had a well covered faux pas regarding his history as a "lifelong hunter." He told attendees at the NRA's "Celebration of American Values" meeting in September that he supports the federal appeals court decision in the D.C. gun ban case. He discussed the issue on Meet the Press as well. Is he a pandering politician or has he really had a change of heart?

Then there is Mike Huckabee. As Governor of Arkansas, he had an "A" rating from the NRA. But, is he really a viable candidate or is he just splitting the conservative votes with Romney allowing McCain to win. Huckabee pulled an upset in Iowa on January 3rd but has not won since. He is basically out of money and is hoping to win in southern states with a high number of evangelical Christian voters to keep his hopes alive. At this point he appears to be running for the number 2 spot on the ticket and may be helping to catapult McCain to the nomination.

For Virginia gun owners who are Democrats, you don't have a pro-gun choice. I can't decide who is worse - Obama or Clinton. Both guarantee that if the Democrats win the White House, gun owners could be in for at least four tough years.

So, what should gun owners do on February 12th? Think long a hard about your decision. The winner of the election will likely have at least one Supreme Court nomination and possibly two. Focusing on the two candidates considered to have the best shot at getting the nomination, McCain claims he would appoint judges like Roberts or Alito yet it has been reported in National Review that McCain might not be so warm to justices like Alito after all. Romney has pledged to appoint justices like Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito. On the Democratic side, we can guarantee that both Obama and Clinton would appoint the likes of Stevens and Ginsberg.

Gun owners are urged to vote on February 12th and to "Vote Freedom First."

UPDATE: According to Instapundit Romney said today that he would "veto any gun control bills that cross his desk as President, including a renewal of the 'assault weapon' ban." This is different than what he said in December on Meet the Press. He also repeated the already disproven claim that the NRA endorsed him in 2002. Instapundit also includes this link on Romney's current position on 2nd Amendment issues.

And this from Jake Tapper on an ABC News blog post: Obama told a crowd in Idaho that he has "no intention of taking away folks' guns." However, it is widely reported that Obama does support gun control and has a record of voting for it in the Illinois Senate. He supported handgun rationing (limiting handgun purchases to one a month) and the Clinton campaign of all people has pointed out when Obama was running for the state legislature, he responded on a questionnaire that he "supported banning the manufacture, sale and possession of handguns.''

Tapper also mentions the recent mistep of both Romney on the gun issue.