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Friday, April 28, 2023

The Importance of the 2023 General Assembly Elections

At the federal level, Biden’s entire gun ban agenda was handed another set back this week thanks to a ruling against former president Donald Trump’s bump stock ban.  The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals joined the 5th circuit in ruling the ban unconstitutional.  The 6th Circuit ruled the bump stock ban was too confusing to enforce, mainly because the ATF had flip-flopped on enforcement. The so-called “ghost gun” and pistol brace bans have the same weakness. All three were implemented through a regulatory rulemaking process and all three feature the ATF changing its mind on whether the parts in question are legal after years (or even decades) of saying the opposite.  

While federal gun control is not faring well, it's a different story at the state level.  Washington state this week enacted a so-called assault weapons ban.  Washington State joins Illinois in passing a ban after the Bruen decision.

What does all of this have to do with Virginia?  A lot.  If you were like me and listened to General Assembly Democrats this session defend their bills to impose a so-called "assault weapons" ban and impose other California and New Jersey style gun bans on the Commonwealth, you would know that they are reading from talking points that the gun ban lobby has created to explain why such laws are constitutional after the Bruen decision.  

When the Democrats took complete control of the state government in 2020, they wasted no time in passing gun control.  The one thing they were not able to do was pass an "assault weapons" ban.  Three Democrats in the Senate Judiciary Committee joined with all of the Republicans to kill the bill.  That changed this year when all of those Democrats voted for a slightly different bill that still would have banned most commonly owned semi-automatic firearms, including some semi-automatic handguns.  The bill was killed in the House of Delegates.

Since 2022, Virginia has had the backstop of a pro-rights House of Delegates.  But, that could all change after this year's legislative election and we may have to rely on Governor Youngkin to veto any gun ban bills that make it to his desk if we don't hold the House of Delegates and install a pro-rights majority in the State Senate.  A look at the redistricting maps for both houses shows that task is doable, but will be tough.


Above are House districts after redistricting.  A third of the districts are currently open.  While many of these should be districts that the GOP should do well, the tidewater area in the eastern part of the state could determine control of the chamber.

The Senate map above shows that the task of replacing the gun ban majority will be more difficult.  About 25% of the districts are open and the gun ban majority starts with four more seats than the GOP. This will take a lot of work to flip this chamber.

Since Bruen, states controlled by the gun ban crowd have shown they plan to rely on friendly courts in their area to uphold bans, as has recently happened with the Illinois assault weapons ban.  They know it takes time for a case to wind it's way to the Supreme Court and then the Court has to agree to take the case.  Gun owners need to do all they can to insure that gun ban candidates do not win a majority in the General Assembly this year.  If you want to get involved, contact:

Skye Riggleman
skye@nrailafrontlines.com
NRA-ILA Grassroots Field Coordinator
NC,VA,WV,MD,DE


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