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Thursday, July 12, 2012

Interesting Post on Presidential Election Outcome

Bitter over on Shall Not Be Questioned has an interesting post  with a link to a CFIF post, discussing what would happen if the presidential election ended in a tie in the Electoral College.  I must say I am one that hasn't given much thought to this question because I think whoever wins, will do so by a larger margin than most pundits currently think.  Bitter asks readers to think about their state and how their representatives might vote if it came done to the House of Representatives to decide the election. Looking at Virginia's current congressional district make up, here is what could happen.  The three congressional districts in Virginia (3rd, 8th, and 11th) that are likely to vote for Obama are represented by Democrats, so they will vote for their party's nominee.  It is also likely that the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th, all represented by Republicans and all but one went for McCain in 2008, will vote for Romney. The 4th district voted (50.33% to 48.80) for Obama. So at this point, the total is 6-3 in Romney's favor.

That leaves the 2nd and the 10th Districts.  The second district is currently represented by Republican Scott Rigell and has traditionally voted Republican. But in 2008 it went for Obama and could do so again this year.  The 10th is also represented by a Republican, Frank Wolf, but it includes a small portion of Fairfax County, Loudoun County, and Prince William County, all of which are part of Northern Virginia and full of federal employees. So, even if the two Republicans were to vote for the other party's nominee because that is the way their constituents voted, Romney would win the delegation 6-5. 

But, what happens if the 4th once again goes for Obama as it did in 2008?

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