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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

What Will Campaign 2010 Mean for Gun Rights in 2011

When looking at what a particular campaign will mean for our rights, I can think of no better commentator than the Independence Institute's Dave Kopel.  He has broken down past elections post mortem in National Review.  Yesterday, he wrote about what this year's U.S. Senate Elections may foreshadow for gun rights in 2011.  Kopel notes that both parties have pro-rights and anti-rights members in the senate.  With a break down of each senate race, we get a good indication of what, if anything will change after the election.  A couple races of note:

Missouri: Sen. Kit Bond (R) is retiring. Republican Representative Roy Rlunt (A in 2008) vies with Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. In 1999, Carnahan ran the campaign opposing Proposition B, which would have enacted a law to allow for the licensed carry of concealed handguns by persons who passed a background check and a safety class. Carnahan’s campaign asserted that licensed carry was “too dangerous for Missouri families.” The Missouri legislature enacted licensed carry in 2003, and experience since then has proven that Carnahan was quite wrong.

Blunt’s lead is not large, and so Missouri represents this year’s best chance that anti-gun forces to gain a Senate seat.

North Dakota: Retiring Democrat Byron Dorgan (D+ in 2004 Senate re-election) had an especially bad record in light of the state that he represented. Republican Governor John Hoeven (A+ in 2008 gubernatorial reelection) has a wide lead over Democrat Tracy Potter. Count this is a certain pickup for gun owners.

National net: The middle-of-the-road estimate would be a total of +5.5, and a plausible best-case scenario of +10. The middle estimate would provide enough votes to defeat filibusters, and the +10 could be enough to defeat vetoes.
Kopel has identified why this election is very important for gun rights.

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