Support VSSA Advertisers

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" Predicts GOP Holds House of Delegates

Due in large part to gerrymandered districts, the bulk of the GOP's House of Delegate's majority is safe next Tuesday.  There are 45 uncontested races and an additional 12 with incumbents only facing independent candidates or "third party" candidates some of which are candidates who have put no effort into the race.  Some of the contested races are in Northern Virginia and due to the fact the region has turned so reliably blue (or at least purple fading to blue), that is where the GOP could end up losing if they lose any seats.  The GOP also stands to pick up a Democrat held seat in Southwest that is being vacated by the retiring Delegate Joe Johnson.  This from Geoffrey Skelley over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
To refresh, there is still no chance that Democrats will win a majority of the chamber’s 100 seats. Republicans presently hold a 68-32 edge (counting one independent caucusing with the GOP), giving them an impregnable advantage in the House. Even more helpful to Republicans is the fact that the only sure-fire pick-up in the House is going to be a Republican one in HD-4, an ancestrally Democratic district in southwest Virginia currently held by retiring Del. Joe Johnson (D). The GOP is the only party fielding a candidate there.
There are about a dozen seats in districts President Obama carried in 2012 that are currently held by Republican Delegates.
Courtesy Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
The race drawing the most attention is the Northern Virginia district currently held by Barbara Comstock.  In 2012, Obama narrowly carried this district.  Mayor Michael Bloomberg has dropped $100,000 into the Democrat's campaign, after being "badgered" by Kathleen Murphy to help her out.  And with all the talk about Bloomberg's money in the Governor's and AG's race, his real target is turning out the Democrat vote to help sway the close legislative races to his side. Democrats are also working hard to get turn out up to where it was in 2012, believing (probably accurately) that if they can get Blacks and young voters to show up in the off year (which typically is not the case) then they can win.  Bloomberg knows he can't change the overall make-up of the House of Delegates, but he understands incrementalism.  If he can win a handful of races, and also claim to be on the winning side in the Governor's race, he adds to the narrative that gun control is a winning issue if candidates will only run on it.

No comments: