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Thursday, March 28, 2013

Rothenberg Makes Good Points In Roll Call

Stuart Rothenberg writes on his Rothenberg Blog for Roll Call that the "Fat Lady" has sung on gun control.  While gun owners should not be ready to declare victory until all of the bills and proposals are defeated legislatively, he does make some good points.  First, he challenges the assertion made by left leaning groups like Center for American Progress that Newtown changed the debate and that polls are missing emerging trends in gun control.
But a CBS News poll released this week suggests the gun control issue is losing steam.

The March 20-24 survey found 47 percent of respondents favoring stricter gun control laws, while 39 percent said gun control laws should be kept as they are and 11 percent favored fewer restrictions — a 10-point drop in support for greater regulation since a February survey.
Rothenburg doesn't mention it but CNN also has a poll showing a more dramatic drop of support for new controls.

Next, Rothenburg addresses the reality that gun control advocates like Bloomberg will face if they try to take out pro-rights advocates up for re-election in 2014, even if they challenge pro-rights (or in some cases somewhat pro-rights Democrats).
In fact, given the geographical distribution of support for more gun control (disproportionately in the Northeast and in urban areas around the country) and the way congressional districts are drawn, higher turnout among liberals and minority voters isn’t likely to improve Democratic prospects.

And the Senate map for 2014 — with seats up in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia — is more likely to be a problem for Democrats who support substantial new gun control measures.
So,  while we should not declare that the battle is over as Rothenberg does, our phone calls and letters are having an impact.  Don't let up.  With two vulnerable Democrats, Arkansas Senator David Pryor and North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp basically telling Bloomberg to mind his own business, others likely will follow and in 2014, if we do our job, the election map will be on our side too.

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