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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Washington Post Poll Shows Obama Leads Romney By 8% Among Likely Voters

The Washington Post has released the results of it's latest poll that, according to the poll, shows Obama leading in Virginia by 8% among likely voters.  Interestingly, that is a higher margin that Obama leads by among registered voters. Among registered voters, the spread is 7%.

Virginia does not register voters by party, though the State Board of Elections keeps track of who votes in party primaries, which is the only way to get an indication of the way particular voters lean.  So, a voter that only votes in Republican primaries and votes in every GOP primary, no matter how minor the office, it is likely safe to say is a GOP voter (same with the voter in Democrat primaries).  The individual who splits there time between party primaries could probably be identified as an independent.  For the purposes of this poll, it appears the Post relied on self identification rather than asking the SBE to sort the voter list by primary voters.  The spread among self identifying party affiliation is 8 points in favor of Democrats (32% to 24% with 35% identifying as Independent).

I'll let you decide if the poll is tilted.

Update: Norman Leahy has this to say about the poll over on Bearing Drift.

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