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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Poll Indicates NRA Endorsement Not Helping Perriello

Roanoke College today released the results of their latest poll in Virginia's 5th Congressional District that shows State Senator Robert Hurt maintaining a lead in the race against incumbent Tom Perriello though the current 6 point lead is smaller than in previous polls. Tea Party candidate Jeffery Clark is a distant third, polling 1%.   The poll interviewed 567 likely voters in the between October 5 and October 14. The Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

I found this interesting tidbit in the poll related to the NRA's endorsement of Tom Perriello::

The Poll also asked about the impact of the NRA's endorsement of Perriello, a potentially important factor for an electorate in which 61% of respondents reside in a household that contains a firearm. A majority of respondents said it made no difference to them (80%), while the rest were almost evenly split between saying it made them more likely to vote for Perriello (11%) or less likely to vote for him (9%).
This result seems to validate what NRA-ILA Executive Director Chris Cox told Jim Geraghty at the first of the month when talking about this year's election endorsements and how NRA members may view them:
We focus solely on the right to keep and bear arms, because that’s our issue. Now, there are a lot of other issues that voters have to address, particularly in a year like this; they’re looking at fiscal issues, they’re looking at the health-care issue.

We encourage our members to put it in the forefront of their decision-making, and that’s proven to be a very effective, a very fair, and credible way for NRA to be positioned to help the rights of our members.
It appears that voters are looking hard at those other issues with the poll indicating that the economy is the dominant issue in the campaign with jobs running second and health care third. According to those surveyed, Hurt leads 51%-34% among those who sited the economy as their top issue as well as those who cited jobs (48%-41%). Those who support Obamacare, for which Perriello, voted support the incumbent 51%-34%.

The director of Roanoke College's Institute for Policy and Opinion, Dr. Harry Wilson, who conducted the poll, said the results indicate it will be difficult for Perriello to win a second term.

"Perriello has to hope for a very large turnout among the core Democratic voters as well as the so-called 'Obama voters.' That said, the race is certainly not yet over."
Most models indicate that Republicans are much more motivated to turnout this election than Democrats.  However, it's not over until the last vote is counted so anything can happen.

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