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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Four Incumbent Democrats Get Bad Polling News

Jim Geraghty reports over on NRO's Campaign Spot that four Virginia Democrats received some bad news from a recent poll conducted by ccAdvertising.  Three of the Democrats are trailing and one is leading but locked in a close race.  It should be noted the polls include a large number of undecideds.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Republican Scott Rigell has a commanding lead over Democrat Glenn Nye in the race for Congress of over 14 percent. When asked whom voters will choose on Election Day, 48.6 percent are supporting Rigell, while 34.5 percent are supporting Nye and 16.9 percent are undecided.

In the 5th District, Republican Robert Hurt would defeat incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello by approximately 16 percent. A 51.1 percent majority of respondents support Hurt while 34.7 percent support Democrat Tom Perriello and 14.1 percent are undecided.

In Virginia’s 9th District, 42.6 percent of survey respondents support the incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher while 39.7 percent support challenger Morgan Griffith and 17.6 percent of voters are undecided.

In Virginia’s 11th District, Republican Keith Fimian has a five and one half percent lead over Democrat Gerry Connolly. When asked whom voters support, 42.2 percent favor Fimian, 36.7 percent support Connolly and 21.1 percent are undecided.
The three point spread in the 9th might explain why Boucher has done something in this race that he has rarely done before - mention his opponent by name.  The Roanoke Times reports that Boucher is running an attack ad against Morgan Griffith.  Boucher was recently pounded in an ad by Griffith tying him to President Obama (Obama lost the 9th in 2008) as well as by ads run by a independent group linking Boucher to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  A Boucher spokeswomen denies that polling has anything to do with Boucher's shift in campaign tactics.

So far, Boucher is the only incumbent Democrat to have officially received an endorsement from the NRA.  The Perriello campaign  "proudly announced" on its web site on September 23rd "that it expects to receive the endorsement of the NRA" but nothing has been announced by the NRA yet.   The NRA-PVF web site notes that endorsements are "coming soon."  There has been no word from the Nye campaign regarding an NRA endorsement.  For their part, both Griffith and Hurt have "A" ratings from their last General Assembly campaigns.  Griffith has been instrumental in moving pro-rights legislation through the House of Delegates.  Hurt can claim his own support for the rights of gun owners with this letter from the NRA.  Rigell has no voting record.

It can be safely said that Connolly will not be expecting an NRA endorsement.

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