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Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Primary Analysis

Some take aways from today's voting:

Turnout in the 8th District was abysmal (2.920%). I know this is a very "Blue" district but less than 3% of registered voters is just pitiful.

It appears that Hurt's campaign made the right decision pushing for a primary. In a seven candidate race, he still pulled almost 50% of the vote. Turnout was just under 8% and Hurt won 17,104 votes. No way he would have gotten that many to show up at a nominating convention. The two candidates that filled my email inbox the most (Albemarle Board of Supervisor member Ken Boyd and GOP Activist and teacher Feda Kidd Morton) did not even break double digits. Now Hurt has to pull the party together to make sure the independent does not pick up the support of disenchanted GOP voters who worked for one of the other candidates because they were upset that Hurt support Mark Warner's tax increase in 2004. The 5th District is going to be the race to watch this year in Virginia. Two "A" rated candidates means gun owners know that whoever wins, they have a friend in Congress. It also frees them up to consider other issues and which candidate best represents their views.

In the 11th, Fimian likely benefited from his name ID and the fact that some believe if Connelly can be beaten, Fimian is probably the best candidate to do it. Fimian is probably more conservative than the district as a whole. This will be a tough race to win. Gun owners at least have someone to work for in this district as Fimian was endorsed by the NRA in 2008.

Finally, in the 1st District, Congressman Rob Wittman didn't even break a sweat in dispatching his Tea Party affiliated opponent. Wittman is a true friend to gun owners and he should be an odds on favorite for reelection.

I will breakdown the 2nd District when that race is over. It appears that Rigell may be headed for a victory as he has crept closer to 40% of the vote in a six candidate race with 80% of precincts reporting.

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